Publications by authors named "Aurelio Tobias"

Background: The rise in hot nights over recent decades and projections of further increases due to climate change underscores the critical need to understand their impact. This knowledge is essential for shaping public health strategies and guiding adaptation efforts. Despite their significance, research on the implications of hot nights remains limited.

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Desert dust and sandstorms influence air quality by elevating particulate matter concentrations and transporting anthropogenic pollutants, microorganisms, and toxic biogenic allergens. Although there is increasing concern about their role in spreading infectious diseases, the evidence remains limited. This scoping review synthesizes epidemiological literature on the association between desert dust exposure and infectious disease and identifies critical research gaps.

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In this tutorial we present the use of R package mgcv to implement Distributed Lag Non-Linear Models (DLNMs) in a flexible way. Interpretation of smoothing splines as random quantities enables approximate Bayesian inference, which in turn allows uncertainty quantification and comprehensive model checking. We illustrate various modeling situations using open-access epidemiological data in conjunction with simulation experiments.

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Background: Controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) is an essential step in most assisted conception cycles. Different treatment combinations (termed protocols) exist in COS, yet there is no consensus on their relative effectiveness and safety.

Objectives: We aimed to assess the relative effectiveness and safety of COS protocols in clinical practice.

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Rationale: Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) is a major cause of maternal mortality worldwide. The combination of accurate diagnosis and effective treatment is necessary to improve outcomes. There is uncertainty about which combination of diagnostic and treatment strategies is most effective.

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Rationale: Postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) is the leading cause of maternal mortality worldwide. Prophylactic uterotonic agents can prevent PPH. The current World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for preventing PPH is 10 IU (international units) of intramuscular or intravenous oxytocin.

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Background: Younger generations are projected to experience more severe climate exposure impacts during their lifetimes than older generations as global warming progresses. Despite the increasing evidence of the recent temporal changes in heat-related mortality risks, there remains a lack of research exploring this association from a cohort perspective.

Objective: Our objective was to quantify the variation in susceptibility to short-term effects of non-optimal temperature on mortality, across generations and over the life course of specific generations, using a novel age-period-cohort approach.

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Background: Desert dust and sandstorms raise concerns about their adverse effects on human health. Over the last decade, special attention has been given to mineral dust particles from desert sand. However, evidence from previous literature reviews has yielded inconclusive results regarding their health effects.

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Sand and dust storms increasingly threaten global environmental and public health. To date, 150 countries are directly affected, with more than 100 classified as non-dust source regions. With climate change, these storms are expected to become more frequent and severe.

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Background: Tropical cyclones pose significant health risks and can trigger outbreaks of diarrheal diseases in affected populations. Although the effects of individual hazards, such as rainfall and flooding, on diarrheal diseases are well-documented, the complex multihazard nature of tropical cyclones is less thoroughly explored. To date, no dedicated review comprehensively examines the current evidence and research on the association between tropical cyclones and diarrheal diseases.

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There is a body of evidence that ultrafine particles (UFP, those with diameters ≤ 100 nm) might have significant impacts on health. Accordingly, identifying sources of UFP is essential to develop abatement policies. This study focuses on urban Europe, and aims at identifying sources and quantifying their contributions to particle number size distribution (PNSD) using receptor modelling (Positive Matrix Factorization, PMF), and evaluating long-term trends of these source contributions using the non-parametric Theil-Sen's method.

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Background: The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) or MMT percentile (MMTP) is an indicator of population susceptibility to nonoptimum temperatures. MMT and MMTP change over time; however, the changing directions show region-wide heterogeneity. We examined the heterogeneity of temporal changes in MMT and MMTP across multiple communities and in multiple countries.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study investigates how meteorological factors like temperature and humidity influence COVID-19 transmission across 439 cities from February 2020 to August 2022.
  • Researchers found that lower temperatures (5 °C) significantly increase the risk of COVID-19 incidents compared to moderate temperatures (17 °C), with absolute humidity showing an inverse relationship.
  • The analysis revealed no significant interaction between vaccination rates or variants and the effects of weather on COVID-19 transmission, reinforcing the importance of environmental factors in understanding the pandemic.
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Article Synopsis
  • * This study compared CAMS reanalysis data with actual PM measurements from monitoring stations in Spain to determine the impact of PM on daily mortality.
  • * While overall mortality risk estimates were similar using both data sources, the correlation for city-specific PM effects was low, indicating a need for caution when using reanalysis data to evaluate health impacts in smaller cities.
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Background: Future temperature effects on mortality and morbidity may differ. However, studies comparing projected future temperature-attributable mortality and morbidity in the same setting are limited. Moreover, these studies did not consider future population change, human adaptation, and the variations in subpopulation susceptibility.

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Background: We quantify the mortality burden and economic loss attributable to nonoptimal temperatures for cold and heat in the Central and South American countries in the Multi-City Multi-Country (MCC) Collaborative Research Network.

Methods: We collected data for 66 locations from 13 countries in Central and South America to estimate location-specific temperature-mortality associations using time-series regression with distributed lag nonlinear models. We calculated the attributable deaths for cold and heat as the 2.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study investigates how daily rainfall characteristics—like intensity, duration, and frequency—affect mortality rates from all causes, cardiovascular issues, and respiratory problems across 34 countries from 1980 to 2020.
  • It utilizes a time series analysis to evaluate the association between daily mortality and rainfall events that occur at different return periods (one, two, and five years), including the effects of extreme rainfall with a 14-day lag.
  • The results indicate that extreme rainfall events (five-year return period) correlate with increased mortality rates, particularly for respiratory cases, while moderate rainfall shows protective effects, and the impact varies based on climate and vegetation.
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Background: Heterogeneity in temperature-mortality relationships across locations may partly result from differences in the demographic structure of populations and their cause-specific vulnerabilities. Here we conduct the largest epidemiological study to date on the association between ambient temperature and mortality by age and cause using data from 532 cities in 33 countries.

Methods: We collected daily temperature and mortality data from each country.

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Research on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence on associated health risks at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological and logistical problems. This contribution illustrates the experience of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, an international collaboration working on a global research program on the associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health in a multi-center setting.

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Background: Ambient air pollution, including particulate matter (such as PM and PM) and nitrogen dioxide (NO), has been linked to increases in mortality. Whether populations' vulnerability to these pollutants has changed over time is unclear, and studies on this topic do not include multicountry analysis. We evaluated whether changes in exposure to air pollutants were associated with changes in mortality effect estimates over time.

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