Spatial stratified heterogeneity of mumps incidence in China: a Geodetector-based analysis of driving factors.

Background: China reports the highest number of mumps cases globally, with the disease demonstrating distinct spatial clustering and variability characteristics.

Methods: This study employed descriptive statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis to examine the spatial distribution characteristic and patterns of mumps across 31 Chinese provinces in 2020. Furthermore, based on the principle of spatial stratified heterogeneity, the Geodetector method was systematically applied to assess the influence intensity and interaction effects of economic development, population structure, education level, environmental conditions, and healthcare resource allocation on mumps incidence rate.

Results: The findings revealed a distinct west-to-east decreasing trend of mumps incidence in China, demonstrating significant spatial autocorrelation primarily manifested as high-high clustering in western areas and low-low clustering in eastern regions. Among all influencing factors, the child dependency ratio showed the strongest association with mumps incidence, while healthcare resources exhibited relatively weaker effects. Notably, significant synergistic effects were observed among risk factors, with particularly prominent interaction between GDP per capita and illiteracy rate.

Conclusion: This study provides critical evidence for region-specific mumps prevention strategies, highlighting the need for integrated control measures that consider multifactorial interactions to effectively contain mumps in China.