Temporal Trends of Ischemic Stroke Risk in Patients With Incident Atrial Fibrillation Before Anticoagulation.

JACC Clin Electrophysiol

Department of Medicine, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Internal Medicine, Jorvi Hospital, Espoo, Finland; Department of Internal Medicine, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland.

Published: March 2025


Article Synopsis

  • Atrial fibrillation (AF) significantly increases the risk of ischemic stroke (IS), and this study examined whether this risk has changed over time in patients before starting anticoagulant therapy.
  • From 2007 to 2018, the Finnish Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation (FinACAF) study analyzed 129,789 new AF patients and found that the average IS rate decreased by 25%, even as the average stroke risk score (CHADS-VA) increased.
  • The most notable decrease in IS rates was observed in older women with high stroke risk scores, indicating a potential shift in the management or outcomes for AF patients.

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Article Abstract

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for ischemic stroke (IS), but whether the magnitude of this risk has changed over time is unknown.

Objectives: This study sought to investigate temporal trends in IS rates in patients with incident AF before oral anticoagulant agent (OAC) therapy.

Methods: The nationwide FinACAF (Finnish Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation) study covers patients with AF at all levels of care in Finland from 2007 to 2018. A 4-week quarantine period from AF diagnosis was applied, and only follow-up time without OAC therapy was included. Incidence rates of IS were computed in 4-year intervals in relation to sex and non-sex CHADS-VASc (ie, CHADS-VA) score values.

Results: In total, 129,789 patients with new-onset AF were identified (49.2% women; mean age: 71.4 ± 14.5 years). Between the calendar year intervals of 2007-2010 and 2015-2018, the patients' mean CHADS-VA score increased from 2.5 to 3.0, and concurrently the overall IS rate decreased by 25% from 36.7 to 27.6 events per 1,000 patient-years. This trend was driven by a 32% decrease of IS rate in women, particularly among those with higher age and CHADS-VA scores. The IS rate in patients with a CHADS-VA score of 1 was 8.2 events per 1,000 patient-years and remained stable across the study period.

Conclusions: The initial IS risk in AF patients, before the initiation of OAC therapy, has decreased by 25% between 2007 and 2018 despite an increase in both age and stroke risk scores. The decrease has been most pronounced in older women with high stroke risk scores.

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacep.2024.10.029DOI Listing

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