Long-term prognosis of patients with gallbladder carcinoma after curative-intent resection based on changes in the ratio of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 to total bilirubin (CA19-9/TB): a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

Background: The prognostic value of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is known to be affected by elevated bilirubin levels in patients with gallbladder carcinoma (GBC). The clinical significance of changes in the ratio of CA19-9 levels to total bilirubin (TB) levels in patients with GBC after curative-intent resection remains unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of changes in preoperative and postoperative CA19-9/TB ratio in these patients.

Methods: Prospectively collected data on consecutive patients who underwent curative-intent resection for GBC between January 2015 and December 2020 stored in a multicenter database from 10 hospitals were analyzed in this retrospective cohort study. Based on the adjusted CA19-9 defined as the ratio of CA19-9 to TB, and using 2×10 3  U/µmol as the upper normal value, patients were divided into a normal group (with normal preoperative and postoperative adjusted CA19-9), a normalization group (with abnormal preoperative but normal postoperative adjusted CA19-9), and a non-normalization group (with abnormal postoperative adjusted CA19-9). The primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). The log-rank test was used to compare OS and RFS among the groups. The Cox regression model was used to determine factors independently associated with OS and RFS.

Results: The normal group ( n =179 patients) and the normalization group ( n =73 patients) had better OS and RFS than the non-normalization group ( n =65 patients) (the 3-year OS rates 72.0%, 58.4% and 24.2%, respectively; the RFS rates 54.5%, 25.5% and 11.8%, respectively; both P <0.001). There were no significant differences between the normal and the normalization groups in OS and RFS (OS, P =0.255; RFS, P =0.130). Cox regression analysis confirmed that the non-normalization group was independently associated with worse OS and RFS. Subgroup analysis revealed that the non-normalization group of patients who received adjuvant therapy had significantly improved OS and RFS as compared to those who did not receive adjuvant therapy (OS, P =0.025; RFS, P =0.003).

Conclusions: Patients with GBC who underwent curative-intent surgical resection with postoperative abnormal levels of adjusted CA19-9 (the CA19-9/TB ratio) were associated with poorer long-term survival outcomes. Adjuvant therapy after surgery improved the long-term outcomes of these patients.