Assessing the ecological risk of croplands in loess drylands by combining environmental disturbance with ecosystem vulnerability.

Agroecosystems suffer various ecological risks due to the intensive production of crops. However, comprehensive assessments of cropland ecological risks remain limited. This study developed an assessment method for cropland ecological risks by combining environmental disturbance with ecosystem vulnerability. Environmental disturbance reflects stresses caused by risk sources in an environment, while ecosystem vulnerability is the susceptibility of an ecosystem to adverse disturbances and its capacity to cope and adapt. The proposed method is conducive to understanding the complex exposure-response relationship between croplands and environmental stresses. Cropland ecological risk was evaluated by conducting a case study on a loess dryland region in Shaanxi. The hot spots and driving factors of risk were explored using spatial autocorrelation and quantile regression methods, respectively. Results show that overall cropland ecological risk is at medium low level. Risk hot spots are concentrated in the north of the loess dryland. Ecosystem vulnerability exerts greater effect on the distribution of hot spots than environmental disturbance in the study area. Road density (RDD), river density, and soil organic matter exert the most important effects on cropland ecological risk. Moreover, the same driving factor exhibits various effects on cropland ecological risk in different risk level areas. RDD, slope, precipitation, elevation, fertilizer application rate, gross domestic product, and distance to town center have greater effects on risk in regions with high cropland ecological risk than in regions with low cropland ecological risk. The findings of this study must be considered in formulating targeted policies for controlling cropland ecological risk in loess drylands to realize sustainable crop production.