Development and validation of a nomogram based on neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and fibrinogen-to-lymphocyte ratio for predicting recurrence of colorectal adenoma.

Background: There are many risk factors for the recurrence of colorectal adenoma (CRA). The purpose of this study was to explore the predictive performance of fibrinogen-to-lymphocyte ratio (FLR) and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) on the recurrence of CRA and to construct a predictive model.

Methods: This study analyzed the clinicopathological features of 421 CRA patients who underwent colonoscopy and adenectomy, and evaluated the recurrence of polyps under colonoscopy. Among them, 301 were training cohort and 120 were validation cohort. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors associated with CRA recurrence. Established a nomogram model to predict the risk of recurrence in CRA patients using independent risk factors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to verify the nomogram model discrimination. Calibration curves were used to verify the model calibration degree. The decision curve analysis (DCA) curves were used to verify the clinical efficacy of the nomogram model.

Results: Totally, six independent predictors, including smoking, diabetes, adenoma number, adenoma size, NLR, and FLR, were enrolled in the nomogram. In the training cohort and validation cohort, the area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram for predicting the risk of CRA recurrence was 0.846 and 0.841, respectively. The calibration curves displayed a good agreement. DCA curves showed that this model had a high net clinical benefit.

Conclusions: Smoking, diabetes, adenoma number, adenoma size, NLR, and FLR were influencing factors for CRA recurrence.