Planetary boundaries under a land-based climate change mitigation scenario with a food demand transformation: a modelling study.

Background: Ambitious climate change mitigation in all economic sectors is crucial for limiting global warming. Cost-effective mitigation pathways to keep global average temperature increases below 1·5°C by the end of the 21st century often rely on land-based greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, increased land-based carbon uptake and biomass supply to other sectors (eg, energy and transport), and demand-side changes in the food system. To evaluate the broader sustainability of land-based climate change mitigation action, we evaluated synergies and trade-offs of individual and combined supply-side mitigation measures across five planetary boundaries. We also examined the role of a food demand transformation aligned with the dietary recommendations of the updated planetary health diet defined in the forthcoming EAT-Lancet Commission 2.0 report in shaping planetary boundary outcomes.

Methods: In this modelling study, we used the dynamic land-system modelling framework MAgPIE to assess the consequences of land-based GHG reductions, increased land-based carbon uptake, increased biomass supply to other sectors, and a food-system transformation towards the planetary health diet including food waste reductions on five planetary boundary domains (climate change, nitrogen, land-system change, freshwater use, and biosphere integrity) relative to a reference scenario without land-system mitigation throughout the century. For each planetary boundary control variable, we calculated the level of planetary boundary transgression (ie, the extent to which scenario outcomes exceeded the defined safe operating space) and assessed the contributions of land-based mitigation strategies to reducing planetary boundary transgressions projected for the reference scenario.

Findings: Our projections show that a food-system transformation together with ambitious land-system and energy-system climate change mitigation can limit global warming to below 1·5°C by 2100, while also reducing planetary boundary transgression (particularly for the climate change, land-system change, biosphere integrity, and nitrogen planetary boundaries). However, a safe operating space was not achieved through these mitigation measures, as most planetary boundaries were still projected to remain transgressed by the end of the 21st century. Increased bioenergy supply alone worsened planetary boundary transgression when only looking at land-system impacts, but combining increased bioenergy supply with GHG pricing in the land system alleviated these trade-offs. Food waste reductions and dietary shifts towards the planetary health diet were projected to ease pressures on the land system and reduce planetary boundary transgression of all assessed planetary boundaries.

Interpretation: This research highlights the importance of considering multiple planetary boundaries and the interactions between various mitigation strategies when assessing climate mitigation action in the land system to avoid negative consequences for other aspects of the environment. Following an ambitious climate change mitigation pathway compatible with the Paris Agreement results in a transgression of all assessed five planetary boundaries by 2100. However, the combination of the land-system mitigation measures included in this study produced a substantial shift towards the safe operating space for humanity.

Funding: EAT-Lancet Commission 2.0.