Time-varying cost-effectiveness analysis of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in Chinese patients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction: A microsimulation of the real-world population.

Objective: Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors showed time-varying effects in heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), but corresponding cost-effectiveness in different timeframes remained poorly understood. This study estimated the time-varying cost-effectiveness of SGLT2 inhibitors in HFrEF from the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system.

Methods: Based on real-world individual patient data, a 2-year microsimulation model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding SGLT2 inhibitors to standard therapy compared with standard therapy alone among patients with HFrEF. A published prediction model informed transition probabilities for all-cause death and hospitalization for heart failure. The time-varying effects of SGLT2 inhibitors, medical costs, and utility values were derived from the published literature. Scenario analyses in different timeframes were conducted to assess the trend of cost-effectiveness over time.

Results: Compared with standard therapy alone, SGLT2 inhibitors plus standard therapy were found cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $12,741 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained in 2 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) decreased from $12,346.07/QALY at 0.5 years to $9,355.66/QALY at 2 years. One-direction sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the cost-effectiveness of SGLT2 inhibitors was most sensitive to the cost of SGLT2 inhibitors, the cost of hospitalization for heart failure, the cost of standard therapy for heart failure, and the baseline risks of all-cause death and hospitalization for heart failure. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis proved the robustness of the results.

Conclusion: Adding SGLT2 inhibitors to standard therapy was found to be cost-effective in Chinese patients with HFrEF. Longer treatment appeared to be more economically favorable, but further explorations are warranted.