Pulmonary Tuberculosis Notification Rate Within Shenzhen, China, 2010-2019: Spatial-Temporal Analysis.

Background: Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a chronic communicable disease of major public health and social concern. Although spatial-temporal analysis has been widely used to describe distribution characteristics and transmission patterns, few studies have revealed the changes in the small-scale clustering of PTB at the street level.

Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and clusters of PTB at the street level in the Shenzhen municipality of China to provide a reference for PTB prevention and control.

Methods: Data of reported PTB cases in Shenzhen from January 2010 to December 2019 were extracted from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention to describe the epidemiological characteristics. Time-series, spatial-autocorrelation, and spatial-temporal scanning analyses were performed to identify the spatial and temporal patterns and high-risk areas at the street level.

Results: A total of 58,122 PTB cases from 2010 to 2019 were notified in Shenzhen. The annual notification rate of PTB decreased significantly from 64.97 per 100,000 population in 2010 to 43.43 per 100,000 population in 2019. PTB cases exhibited seasonal variations with peaks in late spring and summer each year. The PTB notification rate was nonrandomly distributed and spatially clustered with a Moran I value of 0.134 (P=.02). One most-likely cluster and 10 secondary clusters were detected, and the most-likely clustering area was centered at Nanshan Street of Nanshan District covering 6 streets, with the clustering time spanning from January 2010 to November 2012.

Conclusions: This study identified seasonal patterns and spatial-temporal clusters of PTB cases at the street level in the Shenzhen municipality of China. Resources should be prioritized to the identified high-risk areas for PTB prevention and control.