Nomogram combining clinical and radiological characteristics for predicting the malignant probability of solitary pulmonary nodules measuring ≤ 2 cm.

Background: At present, how to identify the benign or malignant nature of small (≤ 2 cm) solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) are an urgent clinical challenge. This retrospective study aimed to develop a clinical prediction model combining clinical and radiological characteristics for assessing the probability of malignancy in SPNs measuring ≤ 2 cm.

Method: In this study, we included patients with SPNs measuring ≤ 2 cm who underwent pulmonary resection with definite pathology at Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from January 2020 to December 2021. Clinical features, preoperative biomarker results, and computed tomography characteristics were collected. The enrolled patients were randomized at a ratio of 7:3 into a training cohort of 775 and a validation cohort of 331. The training cohort was used to construct the predictive model, while the validation cohort was used to test the model independently. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors. The prediction model and nomogram were established based on the independent risk factors. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the identification ability of the model. The calibration power was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curve. The clinical utility of the nomogram was also assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA).

Result: A total of 1,106 patients were included in this study. Among them, the malignancy rate of SPNs was 85.08% (941/1,106). We finally identified the following six independent risk factors by logistic regression: age, carcinoembryonic antigen, nodule shape, calcification, maximum diameter, and consolidation-to-tumor ratio. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the training cohort was 0.764 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.714-0.814), and the AUC for the validation cohort was 0.729 (95% CI: 0.647-0.811), indicating that the prediction accuracy of nomogram was relatively good. The calibration curve of the predictive model also demonstrated a good calibration in both cohorts. DCA proved that the clinical prediction model was useful in clinical practice.

Conclusion: We developed and validated a predictive model and nomogram for estimating the probability of malignancy in SPNs measuring ≤ 2 cm. With the application of predictive models, thoracic surgeons can make more rational clinical decisions while avoiding overtreatment and wasting medical resources.