Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for predicting distant metastasis in medullary thyroid carcinoma: An analysis of the SEER database based on the AJCC 8th TNM staging system.

Objective: Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) patients with distant metastases frequently present a relatively poor survival prognosis. Our main purpose was developing a nomogram model to predict distant metastases in MTC patients.

Methods: This was a retrospective study based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Data of 807 MTC patients diagnosed from 2004 to 2015 who undergone total thyroidectomy and neck lymph nodes dissection was included in our study. Independent risk factors were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis successively, which were used to develop a nomogram model predicting for distant metastasis risk. Further, the log-rank test was used to compare the differences of Kaplan-Meier curves of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in different M stage and each independent risk factor groups.

Results: Four clinical parameters including age > 55 years, higher T stage (T3/T4), higher N stage (N1b) and lymph node ratio (LNR) > 0.4 were significant for distant metastases at the time of diagnosis in MTC patients, and were selected to develop a nomogram model. This model had satisfied discrimination with the AUC and C-index of 0.894, and C-index was confirmed to be 0.878 through bootstrapping validation. A decision curve analysis (DCA) was subsequently made to evaluate the feasibility of this nomogram for predicting distant metastasis. In addition, CSS differed by different M stage, T stage, N stage, age and LNR groups.

Conclusions: Age, T stage, N stage and LNR were extracted to develop a nomogram model for predicting the risk of distant metastases in MTC patients. The model is of great significance for clinicians to timely identify patients with high risk of distant metastases and make further clinical decisions.