Number of Examined Lymph Nodes in the Highest Quartile Enhances Staging and Prognosis for Patients with Esophageal Cancer Receiving Neoadjuvant Therapy.

Background: The optimal number of examined lymph nodes (ELN) for accurate staging and prognosis for esophageal cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant therapy remains controversial. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of ELN count on pathologic staging and survival outcomes and to develop a predictive model for lymph node positivity in this patient population.

Methods: Data were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and a multicenter cohort. The inverse probability-weighting and propensity score-matching method was used to balance baseline characteristics. Patients were stratified into four ELN count groups based on quartiles: Q1 (1-9), Q2 (10-14), Q3 (15-20), and Q4 (≥ 21). A nomogram predicting pathologic lymph node positivity was constructed using least absolute shrinkage, selection operator regression, and multivariate logistic regression, incorporating variables such as age, sex, T stage, cN stage, and ELN count.

Results: The training cohort included 1736 patients from the SEER database. After matching, the Q4 group demonstrated significantly superior 5 year overall survival compared with the other three groups, whereas the Q2 and Q3 groups exhibited comparable outcomes. The Q1 group had the worst prognosis. The nomogram demonstrated strong discriminatory ability, with area under the curve values of 0.654 (training cohort) and 0.816 (validation cohort). Higher ELN counts, particularly in the Q4 group, were associated with increased detection of lymph node metastases.

Conclusion: Examination of 21 or more lymph nodes significantly enhances the accuracy of pathologic lymph node staging and improves long-term survival for esophageal cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant therapy.