A radiomics-based model on non-contrast CT for predicting cirrhosis: make the most of image data.

Background: To establish and validate a radiomics-based model for predicting liver cirrhosis in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) by using non-contrast computed tomography (CT).

Methods: This retrospective study developed a radiomics-based model in a training cohort of 144 HBV-infected patients. Radiomic features were extracted from abdominal non-contrast CT scans. Features selection was performed with the least absolute shrinkage and operator (LASSO) method based on highly reproducible features. Support vector machine (SVM) was adopted to build a radiomics signature. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to establish a radiomics-based nomogram that integrated radiomics signature and other independent clinical predictors. Performance of models was evaluated through discrimination ability, calibration and clinical benefits. An internal validation was conducted in 150 consecutive patients.

Results: The radiomics signature comprised 25 cirrhosis-related features and showed significant differences between cirrhosis and non-cirrhosis cohorts ( < 0.001). A radiomics-based nomogram that integrates radiomics signature, alanine transaminase, aspartate aminotransferase, globulin and international normalized ratio showed great calibration and discrimination ability in the training cohort (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.915) and the validation cohort (AUC: 0.872). Decision curve analysis confirmed the most clinical benefits can be provided by the nomogram compared with other methods.

Conclusions: Our developed radiomics-based nomogram can successfully diagnose the status of cirrhosis in HBV-infected patients, that may help clinical decision-making.