Sibling Models Can Test Causal Claims without Experiments: Applications for Psychology.

Randomized experiments are the "gold standard" for inferring causation and are designed to collect covariate information. Yet, many questions cannot be answered with experiments practically or ethically. Often, potential confounds are controlled statistically as covariates in quasi-experimental designs.

The Flynn effect and cognitive decline among americans aged 65 years and older.

To contribute to our understanding of cohort differences and the Flynn effect in the cognitive decline among older Americans, this study aims to compare rates of cognitive decline between two birth cohorts within a study of older Americans and to examine the importance of medical and demographic confounders. Analyses used data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (2011-2019), which recruited older Americans in 2011 and again in 2015 who were then followed for 5 years. We employed mixed-effect models to examine the linear and quadratic main and interaction effects of year of birth while adjusting for covariates such as annual round, sex/gender, education, race/ethnicity, heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, test unfamiliarity, and survey design.

Cohort Changes and Sex Differences After Age 50 in Cognitive Variables in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

Objectives: This paper models cognitive aging, across mid and late life, and estimates birth cohort and sex differences in both initial levels and aging trajectories over time in a sample with multiple cohorts and a wide span of ages.

Methods: The data used in this study came from the first 9 waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, spanning 2002-2019. There were n = 76,014 observations (proportion male 45%).

Social Contagion and General Diffusion Models of Adolescent Religious Transitions: A Tutorial, and EMOSA Applications.

Epidemic Models of the Onset of Social Activities (EMOSA) describe behaviors that spread through social networks. Two social influence methods are represented, social contagion (one-to-one spread) and general diffusion (spread through cultural channels). Past models explain problem behaviors-smoking, drinking, sexuality, and delinquency.

Understanding the exploratory/confirmatory data analysis continuum: Moving beyond the "replication crisis".

In light of the "replication crisis," some advocate for stricter standards and greater transparency in research methods. These efforts push toward a data analysis approach called "confirmatory data analysis" (CDA; see Wagenmakers et al., 2012).

Home Improvement: Evaluating Secular Changes in NLSY HOME-Cognitive Stimulation and Emotional Support Scores.

This study evaluated changes over time in the quality of children's home environment, using the Home Observation Measurement of the Environment (HOME). Longitudinal increases in HOME scores were predicted by both theory and past empirical results. Analysis of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Children data (N = 5715, aged 0-14) suggested that HOME scores have been increasing, and that the increase is a family-level phenomenon.

Cohort and Period Effects as Explanations for Declining Dementia Trends and Cognitive Aging.

Studies have reported that the age-adjusted incidence of cognitive impairment and dementia may have decreased over the past two decades. Aging is the predominant risk factor for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias and for neurocognitive decline. However, aging cannot explain changes in overall age-adjusted incidence of dementia.

The Peer Victimization in College Survey: Construction and validation.

Colleges and universities are increasingly concerned about respect for diversity and tolerance of individual differences on their campuses. Nevertheless, no comprehensive measure of peer victimization has been developed and validated for use with college student populations. The Peer Victimization in College Survey (PVIC) is the first such measure.

A Tribute to the Mind, Methodology and Mentoring of Wayne Velicer.

Wayne Velicer is remembered for a mind where mathematical concepts and calculations intrigued him, behavioral science beckoned him, and people fascinated him. Born in Green Bay, Wisconsin on March 4, 1944, he was raised on a farm, although early influences extended far beyond that beginning. His Mathematics BS and Psychology minor at Wisconsin State University in Oshkosh, and his PhD in Quantitative Psychology from Purdue led him to a fruitful and far-reaching career.

A Simulation Study of Bootstrap Approaches to Estimate Confidence Intervals in DeFries-Fulker Regression Models (with Application to the Heritability of BMI Changes in the NLSY).

The univariate bootstrap is a relatively recently developed version of the bootstrap (Lee and Rodgers in Psychol Methods 3(1): 91, 1998). DeFries-Fulker (DF) analysis is a regression model used to estimate parameters in behavioral genetic models (DeFries and Fulker in Behav Genet 15(5): 467-473, 1985). It is appealing for its simplicity; however, it violates certain regression assumptions such as homogeneity of variance and independence of errors that make calculation of standard errors and confidence intervals problematic.

The impact of having children on domain-specific life satisfaction: A quasi-experimental longitudinal investigation using the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) data.

Longitudinal studies have documented improvements in parents' life satisfaction due to childbearing, followed by postpartum adaptation back to baseline. However, the details underlying this process remain largely unexplored. Based on past literature, set-point theory, and results from an exploratory sample, we investigated empirically how first childbirth affected satisfaction with specific domains of life.

Responding to a 100-Year-Old Challenge from Fisher: A Biometrical Analysis of Adult Height in the NLSY Data Using Only Cousin Pairs.

In 1918, Fisher suggested that his research team had consistently found inflated cousin correlations. He also commented that because a cousin sample with minimal selection bias was not available the cause of the inflation could not be addressed, leaving this inflation as a challenge still to be solved. In the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (the NLSY79, the NLSY97, and the NLSY-Children/Young Adult datasets), there are thousands of available cousin pairs.

Decomposing the causes of the socioeconomic status-health gradient with biometrical modeling.

The consistent relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and health has been widely covered in the media and scientific journals, which typically argue that physical-health inequalities are caused by material disadvantage directly or indirectly (e.g., chronic environmental-stress, health care resources, etc.

Double Decomposition of Level-1 Variables in Multilevel Models: An Analysis of the Flynn Effect in the NSLY Data.

This paper introduces an extension of cluster mean centering (also called group mean centering) for multilevel models, which we call "double decomposition (DD)." This centering method separates between-level variance, as in cluster mean centering, but also decomposes within-level variance of the same variable. This process retains the benefits of cluster mean centering but allows for context variables derived from lower level variables, other than the cluster mean, to be incorporated into the model.

Intelligence, income, and education as potential influences on a child's home environment: A (maternal) sibling-comparison design.

The quality of the home environment, as a predictor, is related to health, education, and emotion outcomes. However, factors influencing the quality of the home environment, as an outcome, have been understudied-particularly how children construct their own environments. Further, most previous research on family processes and outcomes has implemented between-family designs, which limit claims of causality.

The NLSY Kinship Links: Using the NLSY79 and NLSY-Children Data to Conduct Genetically-Informed and Family-Oriented Research.

The National Longitudinal Survey of Youth datasets (NLSY79; NLSY-Children/Young Adults; NLSY97) have extensive family pedigree information contained within them. These data sources are based on probability sampling, a longitudinal design, and a cross-generational and within-family data structure, with hundreds of phenotypes relevant to behavior genetic (BG) researchers, as well as to other developmental and family researchers. These datasets provide a unique and powerful source of information for BG researchers.

Moving in Parallel Toward a Modern Modeling Epistemology: Bayes Factors and Frequentist Modeling Methods.

The Bayesian-frequentist debate typically portrays these statistical perspectives as opposing views. However, both Bayesian and frequentist statisticians have expanded their epistemological basis away from a singular focus on the null hypothesis, to a broader perspective involving the development and comparison of competing statistical/mathematical models. For frequentists, statistical developments such as structural equation modeling and multilevel modeling have facilitated this transition.

Model Conditioned Data Elasticity in Path Analysis: Assessing the "Confoundability" of Model/Data Characteristics.

Much research has been directed at the validity of fit indices in Path Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling (e.g., Browne, MacCallum, Kim, Andersen, & Glaser, 2002 ; Heene, Hilbert, Draxler, Ziegler, & Bühner, 2011 ; Hu & Bentler, 1999 ; Marsh, Hau, & Wen, 2004 ).

Graphical Data Analysis on the Circle: Wrap-Around Time Series Plots for (Interrupted) Time Series Designs.

Many data structures, particularly time series data, are naturally seasonal, cyclical, or otherwise circular. Past graphical methods for time series have focused on linear plots. In this article, we move graphical analysis onto the circle.

Behavior problems and timing of menarche: a developmental longitudinal biometrical analysis using the NLSY-Children data.

A powerful longitudinal data source, the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth Children data, allows measurement of behavior problems (BP) within a developmental perspective linking them to menarcheal timing (MT). In a preliminary analysis, we evaluate the bivariate relationships between BP measured at different developmental periods and the timing of menarche. Correlations were not consistent with any correlational/causal relationship between BP and MT.

The Flynn Effect within Subgroups in the U.S.: Gender, Race, Income, Education, and Urbanization Differences in the NLSY-Children Data.

Although the Flynn Effect has been studied widely across cultural, geographic, and intellectual domains, and many explanatory theories have been proposed, little past research attention has been paid to subgroup differences. Rodgers and Wänström (2007) identified an aggregate-level Flynn Effect (FE) at each age between 5 and 13 in the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSYC) PIAT-Math data. FE patterns were not obtained for Reading Recognition, Reading Comprehension, or Digit Span, consistent with past FE research suggesting a closer relationship to fluid intelligence measures of problem solving and analytic reasoning than to crystallized measures of verbal comprehension and memory.

Biodemographic modeling of the links between fertility motivation and fertility outcomes in the NLSY79.

In spite of long-held beliefs that traits related to reproductive success tend to become fixed by evolution with little or no genetic variation, there is now considerable evidence that the natural variation of fertility within populations is genetically influenced and that a portion of that influence is related to the motivational precursors to fertility. We conduct a two-stage analysis to examine these inferences in a time-ordered multivariate context. First, using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979, and LISREL analysis, we develop a structural equation model in which five hypothesized motivational precursors to fertility, measured in 1979-1982, predict both a child-timing and a child-number outcome, measured in 2002.

Fertility motivations of youth predict later fertility outcomes: a prospective analysis of national longitudinal survey of youth data.

We examine how the motivational sequence that leads to childbearing predicts fertility outcomes across reproductive careers. Using a motivational traits-desires-intentions theoretical framework, we test a structural equation model using prospective male and female data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Specifically, we take motivational data collected during the 1979-1982 period, when the youths were in their teens and early twenties, to predict the timing of the next child born after 1982 and the total number of children born by 2002.

The epistemology of mathematical and statistical modeling: a quiet methodological revolution.

A quiet methodological revolution, a modeling revolution, has occurred over the past several decades, almost without discussion. In contrast, the 20th century ended with contentious argument over the utility of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). The NHST controversy may have been at least partially irrelevant, because in certain ways the modeling revolution obviated the NHST argument.