Life Cycle Emissions and Driving Forces of Air Pollutants and CO from Refractory Manufacturing Industry in China Based on LMDI Model.

China is the world's largest supplier of raw materials and is a major consumer of refractories. The environmental damage that results from the use of refractories has drawn increasing attention. Life cycle emissions of air pollutants and CO associated with the refractory manufacturing industry between 2009 and 2021 were quantified in this study. Particulate matter, SO, and NO emissions decreased by 7.1% (1515 t), 23.6% (2982 t), and 27.8% (3178 t), respectively, over the aforementioned period despite refractory output volumes being relatively stable. Advancements in manufacturing and purification technologies and internal modifications within the industry played a significant role in these decreases. To sustain output while significantly lowering emissions, the industry shifted toward the production of new minimally polluting refractories and monolithic refractories and away from the production of highly polluting clay bricks. CO emission was reduced by 1.36 million tons as a result of product modifications. A logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model was used to quantify the driving forces of five factors (pollution production coefficient, control technology level, economic development level, economic structure, and consumption structure) affecting emissions. Three different emission reduction scenarios were simulated, and potential emission reductions of 23.1-77.7% by 2030 were projected.