Secular Trends in the Prevalence of Total and Latent Prostate Cancer over Half a Century According to Consecutive Autopsy Cases in a Japanese community: The Hisayama Study.

Background And Objective: Our aim was to investigate secular trends in the period prevalence of total prostate cancer (PC) and latent PC (LPC) according to consecutive autopsy cases in a Japanese community.

Methods: A total of 1355 deceased men aged >40 yr in a Japanese community underwent consecutive autopsy examination between 1962 and 2020. The period prevalence of total PC and of LPC was calculated for 15-yr intervals, and secular trends were analyzed using a logistic regression model.

Key Findings And Limitations: The period prevalence of both total PC (from 1.7% in 1962-1976 to 19% in 2007-2020;  < 0.001) and LPC (from 1.3% in 1962-1976 to 11% in 2007-2020;  < 0.001) significantly increased over time (  < 0.001). The age-specific period prevalence of total PC also increased for the age groups 60-79 yr (from 0.55% in 1962-1976 to 9.8% in 2007-2020;  = 0.005) and ≥80 yr (from 6.5% in 1962-1976 to 26% in 2007-2020;  = 0.003). There was no evidence of a secular change in the pathology of LPC.

Conclusions And Clinical Implications: The period prevalence of autopsy-proven total PC and LPC increased over the past 60 yr in a Japanese community. It is likely that this upward trend has involved additional factors beyond improvements in screening and diagnostic techniques or the aging of the population.

Patient Summary: We used data from autopsy examinations in a Japanese population to analyze long-term trends for the occurrence of prostate cancer. We found a significant rise in the occurrence of both diagnosed prostate cancer and latent prostate cancer over the past 60 years in this Japanese community.