Patterns of late Holocene and historical extinctions on Madagascar.

Around 1000 years ago, Madagascar experienced the collapse of populations of large vertebrates that ultimately resulted in many species going extinct. The factors that led to this collapse appear to have differed regionally, but in some ways, key processes were similar across the island. This review evaluates four hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the loss of large vertebrates on Madagascar: Overkill, aridification, synergy, and subsistence shift. We explore regional differences in the paths to extinction and the significance of a prolonged extinction window across the island. The data suggest that people who arrived early and depended on hunting, fishing, and foraging had little effect on Madagascar's large endemic vertebrates. Megafaunal decline was triggered initially by aridification in the driest bioclimatic zone, and by the arrival of farmers and herders in the wetter bioclimatic zones. Ultimately, it was the expansion of agropastoralism across both wet and dry regions that drove large endemic vertebrates to extinction everywhere.