Integrating ctDNA Analysis and Radiomics for Dynamic Risk Assessment in Localized Lung Cancer.

Unlabelled: The complementarity and clinical utility of combining liquid biopsies and radiomic image analysis has not been demonstrated. ctDNA minimal residual disease after chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is highly prognostic, but on-treatment biomarkers are needed to enable response-adapted therapies. In this study, we analyzed 418 patients with NSCLC undergoing CRT to develop and validate a novel dynamic risk model that accurately predicts ultimate progression-free survival during treatment. We optimize tissue-free variant calling from plasma samples to facilitate ctDNA monitoring and demonstrate the importance of accounting for persistent clonal hematopoiesis variants. We show that mid-CRT ctDNA concentration is prognostic for disease progression and integrate additional pre-CRT risk factors, including radiomics, into a combined model that improves outcome prediction. Our results suggest that tumor features, radiomics, and mid-CRT ctDNA analysis are complementary and can identify patients at high and low risk of progression to potentially enable response-adapted therapies.

Significance: This study demonstrates that combining tumor features, radiomics, and ctDNA analysis improves outcome prediction in NSCLC treated with CRT therapy. Our integrated model could enable personalized and response-adapted therapies to reduce toxicity and improve outcomes in patients. See related commentary by Anagnostou and Aggarwal, p. 1534.