A Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD) ≥ 7 Predicts Disease Progression.

Background: Up to 30% of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) will experience a mild disease course. However, there is no consensus definition for mild CD.

Aim: To examine the Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's disease (SES-CD) thresholds best associated with low likelihood of long-term disease progression.

Methods: We conducted a multicentre retrospective cohort study at three tertiary care centres in United States and Europe. We analysed data from 177 surgery-naïve patients with CD who had endoscopic assessment while not on immunosuppressive therapy. The primary outcome was disease progression (systemic steroids, biologic or immunomodulator therapy initiation; new stricturing or penetrating complications; or CD-related hospitalisation or surgery). Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards modelling identified predictors of the primary outcome at 2 and 5 years following endoscopy.

Results: Disease progression occurred in 23% and 35% of patients at years two and five, respectively. Endoscopic severity at enrolment independently predicted disease progression. Compared to those with an SES-CD of 0, an SES-CD ≥ 7 had a greater risk of progression at 2 years (HR 2.50, 95% CI 1.09-5.72) and 5 years (HR 2.89, 95% CI 1.41-5.91). SES-CD > 7 remained independently predictive of disease progression among the 129 immunosuppression-naïve patients (HR 5.65, 95% CI 1.49-21.52) and after excluding patients with prior penetrating disease (HR 2.32, 95% CI 1.00-5.45).

Conclusions: SES-CD ≥ 7 predicts disease progression in mild CD. A score ≤ 6 may help identify patients less likely to progress and be part of the definition of mild CD.