Left Ventricular Wall Stress and Incident Heart Failure in Elderly Community-Dwelling Individuals.

Background: Greater left ventricular (LV) wall stress is associated with adverse outcomes among patients with prevalent heart failure (HF). Less is known about the association between LV wall stress and incident HF.

Objectives: The purpose of the study was to identify clinical factors associated with wall stress and test the association between wall stress and incident HF.

Methods: We studied 4,601 ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study participants without prevalent HF who underwent echocardiography between 2011 and 2013. LV end systolic and diastolic wall stress (LVESWS, LVEDWS) were calculated from chamber and wall thickness, systemic blood pressure, and transmitral Doppler E/e' as a surrogate for LV end diastolic pressure. Incident HF was ascertained by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9/10 claims for hospitalized HF through December 31, 2016. We used Cox regression to test the association between wall stress and incident HF, adjusted for demographics, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, prevalent coronary artery disease and atrial fibrillation, creatinine, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, troponin, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, LV ejection fraction, and LV mass.

Results: The cohort had a median age of 75 years and 58% women, with 18% identifying as Black. Median LVESWS and LVEDWS were 48.8 (25th-75th percentile: 39.3-60.1) and 18.9 (25th-75th percentile: 15.8-22.5) kdynes/cm, respectively. LVESWS and LVEDWS were modestly related (rho = 0.30,  < 0.001). Over 4.6 years of median follow-up (156 HF events), each 1 kdyne/cm greater LVEDWS was significantly associated with higher risk of incident HF (HR: 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06), while LVESWS was not (HR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.99-1.01).

Conclusions: Among community-dwelling elderly individuals, greater LVEDWS is associated with a higher risk for incident HF.