Prediction of PSA Response after Dexamethasone Switch during Abiraterone Acetate + Prednisolone Treatment of Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Patients.

Background: The aim was to elaborate a predictive model to find responders for the corticosteroid switch (from prednisolone to dexamethasone) at the first prostate-specific antigen (PSA) progression (≥25% increase) during abiraterone acetate (AA) treatment of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) patients.

Methods: If PSA has decreased (≥25%) after switch, patients were considered responders. Logistic regression of 19 dichotomized parameters from routine laboratory and patients' history was used to find the best model in a cohort of 67 patients. The model was validated in another cohort of 42 patients.

Results: The model provided 92.5% and 90.5% accuracy in the testing and the validation cohorts, respectively. Overall the accuracy was 91.7%. The AUC of ROC curve was 0.92 (95% CI 0.85-0.96). After a median follow-up of 27.9 (26.3-84) months, the median AA+dexamethasone treatment duration (TD) in non-responders and responders was 4.7 (3.1-6.5) and 11.1 (8.5-12.9) months and the median overall survival (OS) was 23.2 (15.6-25.8) and 33.5 (26.1-38) months, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression revealed that responsiveness was an independent marker of TD and OS.

Conclusions: A high accuracy model was developed for mCRPC patients in predicting cases which might benefit from the switch. For non-responders, induction of the next systemic treatment is indicated.