A dose-response analysis of the effects of prenatal alcohol exposure on cognitive development.

Background: Most studies of the effects of prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) on cognitive function have assumed that the dose-response curve is linear. However, data from a few animal and human studies suggest that there may be an inflection point in the dose-response curve above which PAE effects are markedly stronger and that there may be differences associated with pattern of exposure, assessed in terms of alcohol dose per drinking occasion and drinking frequency.

Methods: We performed second-order confirmatory factor analysis on data obtained at school age, adolescence, and early adulthood from 2227 participants in six US longitudinal cohorts to derive a composite measure of cognitive function. Regression models were constructed to examine effects of PAE on cognitive function, adjusted for propensity scores. Analyses based on a single predictor (absolute alcohol (AA)/day) were compared with analyses based on two predictors (dose/occasion and drinking frequency), using (1) linear models and (2) nonparametric general additive models (GAM) that allow for both linear and nonlinear effects.

Results: The single-predictor GAM model showed virtually no nonlinearity in the effect of AA/day on cognitive function. However, the two-predictor GAM model revealed differential effects of maternal drinking pattern. Among offspring of infrequent drinkers, PAE effects on cognitive function were markedly stronger in those whose mothers drank more than ~3 drinks/occasion, and the effect of dose/occasion was strongest among the very frequent drinkers. Frequency of drinking did not appear to alter the PAE effect on cognitive function among participants born to mothers who limited their drinking to ~1 drink/occasion or less.

Conclusions: These findings suggest that linear models based on total AA/day are appropriate for assessing whether PAE affects a given cognitive outcome. However, examination of alcohol dose/occasion and drinking frequency is needed to fully characterize the impact of different levels of alcohol intake on cognitive impairment.