Predictors of achieving minimal clinically important difference in functional status for elderly patients with degenerative lumbar spinal stenosis undergoing lumbar decompression and fusion surgery.

Objective: To identify the predictors for the achievement of minimal clinically important difference (MCID) in functional status among elderly patients with degenerative lumbar spinal stenosis (DLSS) undergoing lumbar decompression and fusion surgery.

Methods: Patients who underwent lumbar surgery for DLSS and had a minimum of 1-year follow-up were included. The MCID achievement threshold for the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) was set at 12.8. General patient information and the morphology of lumbar paraspinal muscles were evaluated using comparative analysis to identify influencing factors. Multiple regression models were employed to identify predictors associated with MCID achievement. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted to determine the optimal cut-off values for predicting functional recovery.

Results: A total of 126 patients (46 males, 80 females; mean age 73.0 ± 5.9 years) were included. The overall rate of MCID achievement was 74.6%. Patients who achieved MCID had significantly higher psoas major muscle attenuation (43.55 vs. 39.23, p < 0.001) and preoperative ODI (51.5 vs. 41.6, p < 0.001). Logistic regression showed that elevated psoas major muscle attenuation (p = 0.001) and high preoperative ODI scores (p = 0.001) were independent MCID predictors. The optimal cut-off values for predicting MCID achievement were found to be 40.46 Hounsfield Units for psoas major muscle attenuation and 48.14% for preoperative ODI.

Conclusion: Preoperative psoas major muscle attenuation and preoperative ODI were reliable predictors of achieving MCID in geriatric patients undergoing lumbar decompression and fusion surgery. These findings offer valuable insights for predicting surgical outcomes and guiding clinical decision-making in elderly patients.