Associations of metabolic variabilities and cardiovascular outcomes according to estimated glomerular filtration rate in chronic kidney disease: a nationwide observational cohort study.

Background: The impact of baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on the risk of adverse outcomes according to metabolic parameter variabilities in chronic kidney disease has rarely been investigated.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective nationwide cohort study using the National Health Insurance System data in Korea from 2007 to 2013 to identify individuals with three or more health screenings. The metabolic components variability was defined as intraindividual variability between measurements using the variability independent of the mean. The metabolic variability score was defined as the total number of high-variability metabolic components. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the risks of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke.

Results: During a mean follow-up of 6.0 ± 0.7 years, 223,531 deaths, 107,140 myocardial infarctions, and 116,182 ischemic strokes were identified in 9,971,562 patients. Low eGFR categories and higher metabolic variability scores were associated with a higher risk of adverse outcomes. The degree of association between metabolic variability and adverse outcomes was significantly larger in those with low eGFR categories than in those with preserved eGFR (p for interaction < 0.001). Representatively, those with high metabolic variability in the eGFR of <15 mL/min/1.73 m2 group showed a prominently higher risk for all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 5.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.02-6.94) when the degree was compared to the findings in those with preserved (eGFR of ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2) kidney function (aHR, 2.55; 95% CI, 2.41-2.69).

Conclusion: The degree of adverse association between metabolic variability and poor prognosis is accentuated in patients with impaired kidney function.