Construction of a Diagnostic Model for Small Cell Lung Cancer Combining Metabolomics and Integrated Machine Learning.

Background: To date, no study has systematically explored the potential role of serum metabolites and lipids in the diagnosis of small cell lung cancer (SCLC). Therefore, we aimed to conduct a case-cohort study that included 191 cases of SCLC, 91 patients with lung adenocarcinoma, 82 patients with squamous cell carcinoma, and 97 healthy controls.

Methods: Metabolomics and lipidomics were applied to analyze different metabolites and lipids in the serum of these patients. The SCLC diagnosis model (d-model) was constructed using an integrated machine learning technology and a training cohort (n = 323) and was validated in a testing cohort (n=138).

Results: Eight metabolites, including 1-mristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine, 16b-hydroxyestradiol, 3-phosphoserine, cholesteryl sulfate, D-lyxose, dioctyl phthalate, DL-lactate and Leu-Phe, were successfully selected to distinguish SCLC from controls. The d-model was constructed based on these 8 metabolites and showed improved diagnostic performance for SCLC, with the area under curve (AUC) of 0.933 in the training cohort and 0.922 in the testing cohort. Importantly, the d-model still had an excellent diagnostic performance after adjusting the stage and related clinical variables and, combined with the progastrin-releasing peptide (ProGRP), showed the best diagnostic performance with 0.975 of AUC for limited-stage patients.

Conclusion: This study is the first to analyze the difference between metabolomics and lipidomics and to construct a d-model to detect SCLC using integrated machine learning. This study may be of great significance for the screening and early diagnosis of SCLC patients.