Predicting risk of severe neonatal outcomes in preterm infants born from mother with prelabor rupture of membranes.

Background: Perinatal complications are common burdens for neonates born from mother with pPROM. Physicians and parents sometimes need to make critical decisions about neonatal care with short- and long-term implications on infant's health and families and it is important to predict severe neonatal outcomes with high accuracy.

Methods: The study was based on our prospective study on 1001 preterm infants born from mother with pPROM from August 1, 2017, to March 31, 2018 in three hospitals in China. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build a predicting model incorporating obstetric and neonatal characteristics available within the first day of NICU admission. We used enhanced bootstrap resampling for internal validation.

Results: One thousand one-hundred pregnancies with PROM at preterm with a single fetus were included in our study. SNO was diagnosed in 180 (17.98%) neonates. On multivariate analysis of the primary cohort, independent factors for SNO were respiratory support on the first day,, surfactant on day 1, and birth weight, which were selected into the nomogram. The model displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.838 (95%CI, 0.802-0.874) and good calibration performance. High C-index value of 0.835 could still be reached in the internal validation and the calibration curve showed good agreement. Decision curve analysis showed if the threshold is > 15%, using our model would achieve higher net benefit than model with birthweight as the only one predictor.

Conclusion: Variables available on the first day in NICU including respiratory support on the first day, the use of surfactant on the first day and birthweight could be used to predict the risk of SNO in infants born from mother with pPROM with good discrimination and calibration performance.