A Framework for Modelling Thermal Load Sensitivity Across Life.

Forecasts of vulnerability to climate warming require an integrative understanding of how species are exposed to, are damaged by, and recover from thermal stress in natural environments. The sensitivity of species to temperature depends on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of thermal stress. Thus, there is a generally recognized need to move beyond physiological metrics based solely on critical thermal limits and integrate them with natural heat exposure regimes.

A habitat-based approach to reporting the direct impacts of an organization on biodiversity.

There is a rapidly growing need for efficient but rigorous methods for organizations to assess and disclose their biodiversity impacts. We devised a habitat-based analytical approach for estimating the direct impacts of an organization on biodiversity. In our broad approach, we considered the time series of an organization's spatial footprint and assumed its biodiversity position was the accumulated positive and negative impacts over space and time.

Farm revegetation has substantial potential to improve biodiversity outcomes.

Agricultural expansion and intensification has caused habitat loss, contributing to the current biodiversity crisis. Reliable, efficient and consistent information at the farm-scale is critical to understand the magnitude of recent changes in biodiversity and to inform future management actions aimed at reversing historical declines. We apply a habitat-based biodiversity assessment approach to examine the potential for grazing farms across Australia to improve outcomes for biodiversity by revegetating 10 % of the farm area.

Transcriptomic Temperature Stress Responses Show Differentiation Between Biomes for Diverse Plants.

Plants are foundational to terrestrial ecosystems, and because they are sessile, they are particularly reliant on physiological plasticity to respond to weather extremes. However, variation in conserved transcriptomic responses to temperature extremes is not well described across plants from contrasting environments. Beyond molecular responses, photosystem II thermal tolerance traits are widely used to assay plant thermal tolerance.

Expression-environment associations in transcriptomic heat stress responses for a global plant lineage.

The increasing frequency and severity of heatwaves will intensify stress on plants. Given regional variation in heatwave exposure and expected differences in thermal tolerance between species it is unlikely that all plant species will be affected equally by climate change. However, little is currently known about variation in the responses of plants to heat stress, or how those responses differ among closely related species adapted to different environments.

Reporting the biodiversity impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.

There are increasing demands for organisations and governments to report their biodiversity impacts, yet there are limited methods to account for the consequences of emitting greenhouse gases on global biodiversity. We use published evidence to derive a conversion factor of approximately 2.3 × 10 species expected to be committed to extinction per tCO e emitted.

Environmental DNA reveals a mismatch between diversity facets of Amazonian fishes in response to contrasting geographical, environmental and anthropogenic effects.

Freshwater ecosystems are among the most endangered ecosystem in the world. Understanding how human activities affect these ecosystems requires disentangling and quantifying the contribution of the factors driving community assembly. While it has been largely studied in temperate freshwaters, tropical ecosystems remain challenging to study due to the high species richness and the lack of knowledge on species distribution.

Towards a continent-wide ecological site condition database using calibrated expert evaluations.

A cost-effective way of undertaking comprehensive, continental-scale, assessments of ecological condition is needed to support large-scale conservation planning, monitoring, reporting, and decision-making. Currently, cross-jurisdictional inconsistency in assessment methods limits the capacity to scale-up monitoring. Here we present a novel way to build a coherent continent-wide site-level ecological condition dataset, using cross-calibration methods to integrate assessments from many observers.

Linking life history to landscape for threatened species conservation in a multiuse region.

Landscape-scale conservation that considers metapopulation dynamics will be essential for preventing declines of species facing multiple threats to their survival. Toward this end, we developed a novel approach that combines occurrence records, spatial-environmental data, and genetic information to model habitat, connectivity, and patterns of genetic structure and link spatial attributes to underlying ecological mechanisms. Using the threatened northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) as a case study, we applied this approach to address the need for conservation decision-making tools that promote resilient metapopulations of this threatened species in the Pilbara, Western Australia, a multiuse landscape that is a hotspot for biodiversity and mining.

Habitat-based biodiversity assessment for ecosystem accounting in the Murray-Darling Basin.

Understanding how biodiversity is changing over space and time is crucial for well-informed decisions that help retain Earth's biological heritage over the long term. Tracking changes in biodiversity through ecosystem accounting provides this important information in a systematic way and readily enables linking to other relevant environmental and economic data to provide an integrated perspective. We derived biodiversity accounts for the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia's largest catchment.

Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling to assess the role of extreme weather, land use change and socio-economic trends on cryptosporidiosis in Australia, 2001-2018.

Background: Intensification of land use threatens to increase the emergence and prevalence of zoonotic diseases, with an adverse impact on human wellbeing. Understanding how the interaction between agriculture, natural systems, climate and socioeconomic drivers influence zoonotic disease distribution is crucial to inform policy planning and management to limit the emergence of new infections.

Objectives: Here we assess the relative contribution of environmental, climatic and socioeconomic factors influencing reported cryptosporidiosis across Australia from 2001 to 2018.

Protecting Biodiversity (in All Its Complexity): New Models and Methods.

We are facing a biodiversity crisis at the same time as we are acquiring an unprecedented view of the world's biodiversity. Vast new datasets (e.g.

Reconciling global priorities for conserving biodiversity habitat.

Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests that retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fine-resolution global data on habitat condition and species assemblage turnover to identify Earth's high-value biodiversity habitat.

A regional-scale assessment of using metabolic scaling theory to predict ecosystem properties.

Metabolic scaling theory (MST) is one of ecology's most high-profile general models and can be used to link size distributions and productivity in forest systems. Much of MST's foundation is based on size distributions following a power law function with a scaling exponent of -2, a property assumed to be consistent in steady-state ecosystems. We tested the theory's generality by comparing actual size distributions with those predicted using MST parameters assumed to be general.

Scenarios and Models to Support Global Conservation Targets.

Global biodiversity targets have far-reaching implications for nature conservation worldwide. Scenarios and models hold unfulfilled promise for ensuring such targets are well founded and implemented; here, we review how they can and should inform the Aichi Targets of the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity and their reformulation. They offer two clear benefits: providing a scientific basis for the wording and quantitative elements of targets; and identifying synergies and trade-offs by accounting for interactions between targets and the actions needed to achieve them.

Biodiversity Models: What If Unsaturation Is the Rule?

Improving biodiversity predictions is essential if we are to meet the challenges posed by global change. As knowledge is key to feed models, we need to evaluate how debated theory can affect models. An important ongoing debate is whether environmental constraints limit the number of species that can coexist in a community (saturation), with recent findings suggesting that species richness in many communities might be unsaturated.

Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change.

Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105.

Birds of a feather: using species assemblages to assess vulnerability to extinction.

Estimating extinction vulnerability for a large number of species presents significant challenges for researchers, but is of high importance considering the large number of species that are currently unassessed. We present a method using a type of artificial neural network (self organizing map; SOM), which utilizes the co-occurrence patterns of species to estimate each species' vulnerability to extinction. We use this method on Australian bird assemblages and compare the SOM-generated rankings for vulnerability with assessments from the IUCN Red List for those species in which populations have actually been estimated.

Macroecological scale effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functions under environmental change.

Conserving different spatial and temporal dimensions of biological diversity is considered necessary for maintaining ecosystem functions under predicted global change scenarios. Recent work has shifted the focus from spatially local (α-diversity) to macroecological scales (β- and γ-diversity), emphasizing links between macroecological biodiversity and ecosystem functions (MB-EF relationships). However, before the outcomes of MB-EF analyses can be useful to real-world decisions, empirical modeling needs to be developed for natural ecosystems, incorporating a broader range of data inputs, environmental change scenarios, underlying mechanisms, and predictions.

Linking changes in community composition and function under climate change.

Climate change is expected to directly alter the composition of communities and the functioning of ecosystems across the globe. Improving our understanding of links between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning across large spatial scales and rapid global change is a major priority to help identify management responses that will retain diverse, functioning systems. Here we address this challenge by linking projected changes in plant community composition and functional attributes (height, leaf area, seed mass) under climate change across Tasmania, Australia.

Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change.

The capacity of species to track shifting climates into the future will strongly influence outcomes for biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate. However, we know remarkably little about the dispersal abilities of most species and how these may be influenced by climate change. Here we show that climate change is projected to substantially reduce the seed dispersal services provided by frugivorous vertebrates in rainforests across the Australian Wet Tropics.