Prediction of viral spillover risk based on the mass action principle.

Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. There have been several approaches used to predict the risk of spillover through some of the known or suspected infectious disease emergence drivers, largely using correlative approaches.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately.

The cost of a meal: factors influencing prey profitability in Australian fur seals.

Knowledge of the factors shaping the foraging behaviour of species is central to understanding their ecosystem role and predicting their response to environmental variability. To maximise survival and reproduction, foraging strategies must balance the costs and benefits related to energy needed to pursue, manipulate, and consume prey with the nutritional reward obtained. While such information is vital for understanding how changes in prey assemblages may affect predators, determining these components is inherently difficult in cryptic predators.

Influence of environmental variation on spatial distribution and habitat-use in a benthic foraging marine predator.

The highly dynamic nature of the marine environment can have a substantial influence on the foraging behaviour and spatial distribution of marine predators, particularly in pelagic marine systems. However, knowledge of the susceptibility of benthic marine predators to environmental variability is limited. This study investigated the influence of local-scale environmental conditions and large-scale climate indices on the spatial distribution and habitat use in the benthic foraging Australian fur seal (; AUFS).

Intertrip consistency in hunting behavior improves foraging success and efficiency in a marine top predator.

Substantial variation in foraging strategies can exist within populations, even those typically regarded as generalists. Specializations arise from the consistent exploitation of a narrow behavioral, spatial or dietary niche over time, which may reduce intraspecific competition and influence adaptability to environmental change. However, few studies have investigated whether behavioral consistency confers benefits at the individual and/or population level.

Influence of hunting strategy on foraging efficiency in Galapagos sea lions.

The endangered Galapagos sea lion (GSL, ) exhibits a range of foraging strategies utilising various dive types including benthic, epipelagic and mesopelagic dives. In the present study, potential prey captures (PPC), prey energy consumption and energy expenditure in lactating adult female GSLs ( = 9) were examined to determine their foraging efficiency relative to the foraging strategy used. Individuals displayed four dive types: (a) epipelagic (<100 m; EP); or (b) mesopelagic (>100 m; MP) with a characteristic V-shape or U-shape diving profile; and (c) shallow benthic (<100 m; SB) or (d) deep benthic (>100 m; DB) with square or flat-bottom dive profiles.

Environmental influences on foraging effort, success and efficiency in female Australian fur seals.

Understanding the factors which influence foraging behaviour and success in marine mammals is crucial to predicting how their populations may respond to environmental change. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) is a predominantly benthic forager on the shallow continental shelf of Bass Strait, and represents the greatest biomass of marine predators in south-eastern Australia. The south-east Australian region is experiencing rapid oceanic warming, predicted to lead to substantial alterations in prey diversity, distribution and abundance.

Reconciling global priorities for conserving biodiversity habitat.

Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests that retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fine-resolution global data on habitat condition and species assemblage turnover to identify Earth's high-value biodiversity habitat.

Wilderness areas halve the extinction risk of terrestrial biodiversity.

Reducing the rate of global biodiversity loss is a major challenge facing humanity, as the consequences of biological annihilation would be irreversible for humankind. Although the ongoing degradation of ecosystems and the extinction of species that comprise them are now well-documented, little is known about the role that remaining wilderness areas have in mitigating the global biodiversity crisis. Here we model the persistence probability of biodiversity, combining habitat condition with spatial variation in species composition, to show that retaining these remaining wilderness areas is essential for the international conservation agenda.

Projecting impacts of global climate and land-use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional-turnover modelling.

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine-resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity.

Dimensions of biodiversity loss: Spatial mismatch in land-use impacts on species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of European bees.

Aim: Agricultural intensification and urbanization are important drivers of biodiversity change in Europe. Different aspects of bee community diversity vary in their sensitivity to these pressures, as well as independently influencing ecosystem service provision (pollination). To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of human impacts on bee diversity across Europe, we assess multiple, complementary indices of diversity.

Departure time influences foraging associations in little penguins.

Recent studies have documented that little penguins (Eudyptula minor) associate at sea, displaying synchronised diving behaviour throughout a foraging trip. However, previous observations were limited to a single foraging trip where only a small number of individuals were simultaneously tracked. Consequently, it is not known whether coordinated behaviour is consistent over time, or what factors influence it.

Combined bio-logging and stable isotopes reveal individual specialisations in a benthic coastal seabird, the Kerguelen shag.

Individual specialisations, which involve the repetition of specific behaviours or dietary choices over time, have been suggested to benefit animals by avoiding competition with conspecifics and increasing individual foraging efficiency. Among seabirds, resident and benthic species are thought to be good models to study inter-individual variation as they repetitively exploit the same environment. We investigated foraging behaviour, isotopic niche and diet in the Kerguelen shag Phalacrocorax verrucosus during both the incubation and chick-rearing periods for the same individuals to determine the effect of sex, breeding stage, body mass and morphometrics on mean foraging metrics and their consistency.

Local biodiversity is higher inside than outside terrestrial protected areas worldwide.

Protected areas are widely considered essential for biodiversity conservation. However, few global studies have demonstrated that protection benefits a broad range of species. Here, using a new global biodiversity database with unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage, we compare four biodiversity measures at sites sampled in multiple land uses inside and outside protected areas.

Has land use pushed terrestrial biodiversity beyond the planetary boundary? A global assessment.

Land use and related pressures have reduced local terrestrial biodiversity, but it is unclear how the magnitude of change relates to the recently proposed planetary boundary ("safe limit"). We estimate that land use and related pressures have already reduced local biodiversity intactness--the average proportion of natural biodiversity remaining in local ecosystems--beyond its recently proposed planetary boundary across 58.1% of the world's land surface, where 71.

Downscaling land-use data to provide global 30″ estimates of five land-use classes.

Land-use change is one of the biggest threats to biodiversity globally. The effects of land use on biodiversity manifest primarily at local scales which are not captured by the coarse spatial grain of current global land-use mapping. Assessments of land-use impacts on biodiversity across large spatial extents require data at a similar spatial grain to the ecological processes they are assessing.

Dive characteristics can predict foraging success in Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) as validated by animal-borne video.

Dive characteristics and dive shape are often used to infer foraging success in pinnipeds. However, these inferences have not been directly validated in the field with video, and it remains unclear if this method can be applied to benthic foraging animals. This study assessed the ability of dive characteristics from time-depth recorders (TDR) to predict attempted prey capture events (APC) that were directly observed on animal-borne video in Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, n=11).

Benefits of Group Foraging Depend on Prey Type in a Small Marine Predator, the Little Penguin.

Group foraging provides predators with advantages in over-powering prey larger than themselves or in aggregating small prey for efficient exploitation. For group-living predatory species, cooperative hunting strategies provide inclusive fitness benefits. However, for colonial-breeding predators, the benefit pay-offs of group foraging are less clear due to the potential for intra-specific competition.

Use of Anthropogenic Sea Floor Structures by Australian Fur Seals: Potential Positive Ecological Impacts of Marine Industrial Development?

Human-induced changes to habitats can have deleterious effects on many species that occupy them. However, some species can adapt and even benefit from such modifications. Artificial reefs have long been used to provide habitat for invertebrate communities and promote local fish populations.