Rising temperatures contribute to West Nile virus diversification and increased transmission potential.

West Nile virus (WNV), the most common mosquito-borne disease in the continental United States, is vectored by Culex spp. mosquitoes. Since its introduction to New York State (NYS) in 1999, WNV has become endemic.

Molecules to spillover: how climate warming impacts mosquito-borne viruses.

Climate change is a critical driver in the outbreaks of vector-borne infectious diseases worldwide. Arbovirus vectors, namely, mosquitoes, exhibit strong and nonlinear responses to climatic factors, such as temperature driving changes in infectious disease dynamics. In this review, we highlight key climate change factors that can affect arboviruses and their mosquito vectors across multiple biological levels, emphasizing the consequences for the transmission and spread of viruses impacting human hosts.

Local tree cover predicts mosquito species richness and disease vector presence in a tropical countryside landscape.

Context: Land use change and deforestation drive both biodiversity loss and zoonotic disease transmission in tropical countrysides. For mosquito communities that can include disease vectors, forest loss has been linked to reduced biodiversity and increased vector presence. The spatial scales at which land use and tree cover shape mosquito communities present a knowledge gap relevant to both biodiversity and public health.

Non-household environments make a major contribution to dengue transmission: implications for vector control.

The incidence of -borne pathogens has been increasing despite vector control efforts. Control strategies typically target households (HH), where mosquitoes breed in HH containers and bite indoors. However, our study in Kenyan cities of Kisumu and Ukunda (2019-2022) revealed high abundance in public spaces, prompting the question: How important are non-household (NH) environments for dengue transmission and control? Using field data and human activity patterns, we developed an agent-based model simulating transmission across HH and five types of NH environments, which was then used to evaluate preventive (before an epidemic) and reactive (after an epidemic commences) vector control scenarios.

A systematic review of climate-change driven range shifts in mosquito vectors.

As global temperatures rise, concerns about shifting mosquito ranges-and accompanying changes in the transmission of malaria, dengue, and other diseases-are mounting. However, systematic evidence for climate-driven changes in mosquito ranges remains limited. We conducted a systematic review of studies documenting expansions or contractions in medically important mosquito species.

Seasonal temperature fluctuation and snail adaptive behaviors yield insights into the dynamics and distribution of schistosomiasis in Africa.

The complex relationship between temperature and schistosomiasis, an environmentally mediated neglected tropical disease affecting 250 million people globally, with hyperendemicity mostly in Africa, is poorly characterized. Here, we explored how seasonal temperature fluctuation affects the persistence, dynamics, and geographic distribution of schistosomiasis in Africa. We used a temperature-sensitive, mechanistic model of schistosomiasis dynamics that accounts for the adaptive behaviors of intermediate snail hosts and derived the disease's thermal response curve for different patterns of seasonal temperature fluctuations.

Why the growth of arboviral diseases necessitates a new generation of global risk maps and future projections.

Global risk maps are an important tool for assessing the global threat of mosquito and tick-transmitted arboviral diseases. Public health officials increasingly rely on risk maps to understand the drivers of transmission, forecast spread, identify gaps in surveillance, estimate disease burden, and target and evaluate the impact of interventions. Here, we describe how current approaches to mapping arboviral diseases have become unnecessarily siloed, ignoring the strengths and weaknesses of different data types and methods.

Geographic origin and evolution of dengue virus serotypes 1 and 3 circulating in Africa.

Despite the increasing burden of dengue in Kenya and Africa, the introduction and expansion of the virus in the region remain poorly understood. The objective of this study is to examine the genetic diversity and evolutionary histories of dengue virus (DENV) serotypes 1 and 3 in Kenya and contextualize their circulation within circulation dynamics in the broader African region. Viral RNA was extracted from samples collected from a cohort of febrile patients recruited at clinical sites in Kenya from 2013 to 2022.

Impacts of Weather Anomalies and Climate on Plant Disease.

Predicting the effects of climate change on plant disease is critical for protecting ecosystems and food production. Here, we show how disease pressure responds to short-term weather, historical climate and weather anomalies by compiling a global database (4339 plant-disease populations) of disease prevalence in both agricultural and wild plant systems. We hypothesised that weather and climate would play a larger role in disease in wild versus agricultural plant populations, which the results supported.

Nonlinear effects of temperature on mosquito parasite infection across a large geographic climate gradient.

Temperature drives ectothermic host - parasite interactions, making them particularly sensitive to climatic variation and change. To isolate the role of temperature, lab-based studies are increasingly used to assess and forecast disease risk under current and future climate conditions. However, in the field, the effects of temperature on parasitism may be mediated by other sources of variation, including local adaptation.

Evolutionary adaptation under climate change: sp. demonstrates potential to adapt to warming.

Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, promoting expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm range edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in , a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and its genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population.

Mobility and non-household environments: understanding dengue transmission patterns in urban contexts.

Background: Households (HH) have been traditionally described as the main environments where people are at risk of dengue (and other arbovirus) infection. Mounting entomological evidence has suggested a larger role of environments other than HH in transmission. Recently, an agent-based model (ABM) estimated that over half of infections occur in non-household (NH) environments like workplaces, markets, and recreational sites.

Associations between weather and malaria in an elimination setting in Peru: a distributed lag analysis.

Background: () is the predominant malaria species in countries approaching elimination. In the context of climate change, understanding environmental drivers of transmission can guide interventions, yet evidence is limited, particularly in Latin America.

Objectives: We estimated the association between temperature and precipitation and malaria incidence in a malaria elimination setting in Peru.

How Much Warming Can Mosquito Vectors Tolerate?

Climate warming is expected to substantially impact the global landscape of mosquito-borne disease, but these impacts will vary across disease systems and regions. Understanding which diseases, and where within their distributions, these impacts are most likely to occur is critical for preparing public health interventions. While research has centered on potential warming-driven expansions in vector transmission, less is known about the potential for vectors to experience warming-driven stress or even local extirpations.

Highway paving dramatically increased dengue transmission in the Amazon.

Human mobility drives the spread of many infectious diseases, yet the health impacts of changes in mobility due to new infrastructure development are poorly understood and currently not accounted for in impact assessments. We take a novel quasi-experimental approach to identifying the link between mobility and infectious disease, leveraging historical road upgrades as a proxy for regional human mobility changes. We analyzed how highway paving altered transmission of dengue-a high-burden mosquito-borne disease-via changes in human movement in the Madre de Dios region of Peru.

Extreme precipitation, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, drove Peru's record-breaking 2023 dengue outbreak.

Anthropogenic forcing is increasing the likelihood and severity of certain extreme weather events, which may catalyze outbreaks of climate-sensitive infectious diseases. Extreme precipitation events can promote the spread of mosquito-borne illnesses by creating vector habitat, destroying infrastructure, and impeding vector control. Here, we focus on Cyclone Yaku, which caused heavy rainfall in northwestern Peru from March 7th - 20th, 2023 and was followed by the worst dengue outbreak in Peru's history.

Temperature dependence of mosquitoes: Comparing mechanistic and machine learning approaches.

Mosquito vectors of pathogens (e.g., Aedes, Anopheles, and Culex spp.

Molecular epidemiology and evolutionary characteristics of dengue virus 2 in East Africa.

Despite the increasing burden of dengue, the regional emergence of the virus in Kenya has not been examined. This study investigates the genetic structure and regional spread of dengue virus-2 in Kenya. Viral RNA from acutely ill patients in Kenya was enriched and sequenced.

Evolutionary adaptation under climate change: sp. demonstrates potential to adapt to warming.

Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, facilitating expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm range edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in , a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and its genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population.

A flexible model for thermal performance curves.

Temperature responses of many biological traits-including population growth, survival, and development-are described by thermal performance curves (TPCs) with phenomenological models like the Briere function or mechanistic models related to chemical kinetics. Existing TPC models are either simple but inflexible in shape, or flexible yet difficult to interpret in biological terms. Here we present flexTPC: a model that is parameterized exclusively in terms of biologically interpretable quantities, including the thermal minimum, optimum, and maximum, and the maximum trait value.

Species distribution modeling for disease ecology: A multi-scale case study for schistosomiasis host snails in Brazil.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly popular tools for profiling disease risk in ecology, particularly for infectious diseases of public health importance that include an obligate non-human host in their transmission cycle. SDMs can create high-resolution maps of host distribution across geographical scales, reflecting baseline risk of disease. However, as SDM computational methods have rapidly expanded, there are many outstanding methodological questions.

Plasticity in mosquito size and thermal tolerance across a latitudinal climate gradient.

Variation in heat tolerance among populations can determine whether a species is able to cope with ongoing climate change. Such variation may be especially important for ectotherms whose body temperatures, and consequently, physiological processes, are regulated by external conditions. Additionally, differences in body size are often associated with latitudinal clines, thought to be driven by climate gradients.

A Mosquito Parasite Is Locally Adapted to Its Host but Not Temperature.

AbstractClimate change will alter interactions between parasites and their hosts. Warming may affect patterns of local adaptation, shifting the environment to favor the parasite or host and thus changing the prevalence of disease. We assessed local adaptation to hosts and temperature in the facultative ciliate parasite , which infects the western tree hole mosquito .

Climate and urbanization drive changes in the habitat suitability of Schistosoma mansoni competent snails in Brazil.

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by Schistosoma parasites. Schistosoma are obligate parasites of freshwater Biomphalaria and Bulinus snails, thus controlling snail populations is critical to reducing transmission risk. As snails are sensitive to environmental conditions, we expect their distribution is significantly impacted by global change.