Publications by authors named "Andrew J MacDonald"

Mosquito-borne diseases are deeply embedded within ecological communities, with environmental changes-particularly climate change-shaping their dynamics. Increasingly intense droughts across the globe have profound implications for the transmission of these diseases, as drought conditions can alter mosquito breeding habitats, host-seeking behaviours and mosquito-host contact rates. To quantify the effect of drought on disease transmission, we use West Nile virus as a model system and leverage a robust mosquito and virus dataset consisting of over 500 000 trap nights collected from 2010 to 2023, spanning a historic drought period followed by atmospheric rivers.

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There is mounting concern surrounding climate change effects on human health. Vector-borne diseases-transmitted by ectotherms like mosquitos-are sensitive to abiotic conditions, and there is a significant interest in modeling their response to future climate change. However, changing climate also contributes to increasing variability and frequency of extreme weather, including "climate whiplash" events, when weather conditions abruptly shift between extremes.

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Background: Ectothermic arthropods, like ticks, are sensitive indicators of environmental changes, and their seasonality plays a critical role in the dynamics of tick-borne disease in a warming world. Juvenile tick phenology, which influences pathogen transmission, may vary across climates, with longer tick seasons in cooler climates potentially amplifying transmission. However, assessing juvenile tick phenology is challenging in arid climates because ticks spend less time seeking for blood meals (i.

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Quantifying ecosystem services provided by mobile species like insectivorous bats remains a challenge, particularly in understanding where and how these services vary over space and time. Bats are known to offer valuable ecosystem services, such as mitigating insect pest damage to crops, reducing pesticide use, and reducing nuisance pest populations. However, determining where bats forage is difficult to monitor.

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Background: Ectothermic arthropods, like ticks, are sensitive indicators of environmental changes, and their seasonality plays a critical role in tick-borne disease dynamics in a warming world. Juvenile tick phenology, which influences pathogen transmission, may vary across climates, with longer tick seasons in cooler climates potentially amplifying transmission. However, assessing juvenile tick phenology is challenging in climates where desiccation pressures reduce the time ticks spend seeking blood meals.

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Human mobility drives the spread of many infectious diseases, yet the health impacts of changes in mobility due to new infrastructure development are poorly understood and currently not accounted for in impact assessments. We take a novel quasi-experimental approach to identifying the link between mobility and infectious disease, leveraging historical road upgrades as a proxy for regional human mobility changes. We analyzed how highway paving altered transmission of dengue-a high-burden mosquito-borne disease-via changes in human movement in the Madre de Dios region of Peru.

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Article Synopsis
  • Mosquito-borne diseases are heavily impacted by environmental factors, making it crucial to understand how these diseases respond to changes like temperature.
  • Recent advancements in trait-based mechanistic models have enhanced our understanding of this response, although validating their predictions in real-world settings remains difficult.
  • Using West Nile virus as an example, a new remote sensing method was employed to map temperature-related traits, revealing that the optimal temperature for mosquito infection rates aligns with model predictions, thereby improving our ability to predict disease risk.
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Predicting how increasing intensity of human-environment interactions affects pathogen transmission is essential to anticipate changing disease risks and identify appropriate mitigation strategies. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are highly responsive to environmental changes, but such responses are notoriously difficult to isolate because pathogen transmission depends on a suite of ecological and social responses in vectors and hosts that may differ across species. Here we use the emerging tools of cumulative pressure mapping and machine learning to better understand how the occurrence of six medically important VBDs, differing in ecology from sylvatic to urban, respond to multidimensional effects of human pressure.

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Background: Billions of people living in poverty are at risk of environmentally mediated infectious diseases-that is, pathogens with environmental reservoirs that affect disease persistence and control and where environmental control of pathogens can reduce human risk. The complex ecology of these diseases creates a global health problem not easily solved with medical treatment alone.

Methods: We quantified the current global disease burden caused by environmentally mediated infectious diseases and used a structural equation model to explore environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens across all countries.

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Article Synopsis
  • The text discusses progress made by sustainable development practitioners in reducing human infectious diseases while promoting conservation through a systematic literature review of 46 proposed solutions.
  • Some solutions showed medium to high-quality evidence of success, but there were significant evidence gaps indicating a need for further research.
  • Stakeholders are encouraged to use the Review and an online database to discover, customize, or innovate new win-win interventions.
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Humans live in complex socio-ecological systems where we interact with parasites and pathogens that spend time in abiotic and biotic environmental reservoirs (e.g., water, air, soil, other vertebrate hosts, vectors, intermediate hosts).

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Identifying the effects of environmental change on the transmission of vectorborne and zoonotic diseases is of fundamental importance in the face of rapid global change. Causal inference approaches, including instrumental variable (IV) estimation, hold promise in disentangling plausibly causal relationships from observational data in these complex systems. Valle and Zorello Laporta recently critiqued the application of such approaches in our recent study of the effects of deforestation on malaria transmission in the Brazilian Amazon on the grounds that key statistical assumptions were not met.

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Objectives To determine the prevalence and specific modalities of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) by professional voice users (PVUs) for vocal ailments and to examine the PVU's health care utilization. Methods A Canadian national cross-sectional survey was conducted. Surveys were distributed electronically to members of the Alliance of Canadian Cinema, Television, and Radio Artists; the National Association of Teachers of Singing; the Canadian Actors Equity Association; and the Department of Vocal Performance at Western University.

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Objectives: The molecular adsorbent recirculating system removes water-soluble and albumin-bound toxins and may be beneficial for acute liver failure patients. We compared the rates of 21-day transplant-free survival in acute liver failure patients receiving molecular adsorbent recirculating system therapy and patients receiving standard medical therapy.

Design: Propensity score-matched retrospective cohort analysis.

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Weeds represent a significant threat to crop yields and global food security. We analysed data on weed competition from the world's longest running agricultural experiment to ask whether potential yield losses from weeds have increased in response to management and environmental change since the advent of the Green Revolution in the 1960s. On plots where inorganic nitrogen fertiliser has been applied, potential yield losses from weeds have consistently increased since 1969.

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Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are embedded within complex socio-ecological systems. While research has traditionally focused on the direct effects of VBDs on human morbidity and mortality, it is increasingly clear that their impacts are much more pervasive. VBDs are dynamically linked to feedbacks between environmental conditions, vector ecology, disease burden, and societal responses that drive transmission.

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Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

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Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in temperate zones and a growing public health threat in the United States (US). The life cycles of the tick vectors and spirochete pathogen are highly sensitive to climate, but determining the impact of climate change on Lyme disease burden has been challenging due to the complex ecology of the disease and the presence of multiple, interacting drivers of transmission. Here we incorporated 18 years of annual, county-level Lyme disease case data in a panel data statistical model to investigate prior effects of climate variation on disease incidence while controlling for other putative drivers.

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Tropical forest loss currently exceeds forest gain, leading to a net greenhouse gas emission that exacerbates global climate change. This has sparked scientific debate on how to achieve natural climate solutions. Central to this debate is whether sustainably managing forests and protected areas will deliver global climate mitigation benefits, while ensuring local peoples' health and well-being.

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Background & Aims: Acetaminophen (APAP)-induced acute liver failure (ALF) is a rare disease associated with high mortality rates. This study aimed to evaluate changes in interventions, psychosocial profile, and clinical outcomes over a 21-year period using data from the ALF Study Group registry.

Methods: A retrospective review of this prospective, multicenter cohort study of all APAP-ALF patients enrolled during the study period (1998-2018) was completed.

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Global environmental change is having profound effects on the ecology of infectious disease systems, which are widely anticipated to become more pronounced under future climate and land use change. Arthropod vectors of disease are particularly sensitive to changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature and moisture availability. Recent research has focused on shifting environmental suitability for, and geographic distribution of, vector species under projected climate change scenarios.

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Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with high perioperative mortality in patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT). In the era of Model of End-stage Liver Disease score-based allocation, more patients with impaired renal function are receiving LT. The majority of preoperative AKI is secondary to azotemia, including hepatorenal syndrome - a progressive form of renal impairment unique to liver failure.

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Purpose Of Review: Patients with cirrhosis are frequently hospitalized with acute decompensation and organ system failure - a syndrome referred to as acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF). These patients often require critical care intervention and experience significant mortality; however, established diagnostic and prognostic criteria are lacking. Given this, it remains imperative for intensivists to develop an expertise in common ACLF complications and management.

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A diversity of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (Johnson, Schmid, Hyde, Steigerwalt & Brenner) (Spirochaetales: Spirochaetaceae) genomospecies, including the Lyme disease agent, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (s.s.), have been identified in the western United States.

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Deforestation and land use change are among the most pressing anthropogenic environmental impacts. In Brazil, a resurgence of malaria in recent decades paralleled rapid deforestation and settlement in the Amazon basin, yet evidence of a deforestation-driven increase in malaria remains equivocal. We hypothesize an underlying cause of this ambiguity is that deforestation and malaria influence each other in bidirectional causal relationships-deforestation increases malaria through ecological mechanisms and malaria reduces deforestation through socioeconomic mechanisms-and that the strength of these relationships depends on the stage of land use transformation.

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