When and where can coastal wetland restoration increase carbon sequestration as a natural climate solution?

Coastal wetlands are hotspots of carbon sequestration, and their conservation and restoration can help to mitigate climate change. However, there remains uncertainty on when and where coastal wetland restoration can most effectively act as natural climate solutions (NCS). Here, we synthesize current understanding to illustrate the requirements for coastal wetland restoration to benefit climate, and discuss potential paths forward that address key uncertainties impeding implementation.

Perceptions of coastal vegetated ecosystems: A systematic review across geographical and sectoral dimensions.

Coastal vegetated ecosystems such as mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, and tidal marshes provide a wide array of ecosystem services. They also play a vital role in climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration. However, they are among the most threatened ecosystems globally.

Global seagrass carbon stock variability and emissions from seagrass loss.

Seagrass ecosystems are recognized for their capacity to sequester and store organic carbon, but there is large variability in soil organic carbon stocks associated with plant traits and environmental conditions, making the quantification and scaling of carbon storage and fluxes needed to contribute to climate change mitigation highly challenging. Here, we provide estimates of carbon stocks associated with seagrass systems (biomass and soil) through analyses of a comprehensive global database including 2700+ seagrass soil cores. The median global soil C stock estimate is 24.

Half of land use carbon emissions in Southeast Asia can be mitigated through peat swamp forest and mangrove conservation and restoration.

Southeast Asia (SEA) contributes approximately one-third of global land-use change carbon emissions, a substantial yet highly uncertain part of which is from anthropogenically-modified peat swamp forests (PSFs) and mangroves. Here, we report that between 2001-2022 land-use change impacting PSFs and mangroves in SEA generate approximately 691.8±97.

Soil carbon in the world's tidal marshes.

Tidal marshes are threatened coastal ecosystems known for their capacity to store large amounts of carbon in their water-logged soils. Accurate quantification and mapping of global tidal marshes soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is of considerable value to conservation efforts. Here, we used training data from 3710 unique locations, landscape-level environmental drivers and a global tidal marsh extent map to produce a global, spatially explicit map of SOC storage in tidal marshes at 30 m resolution.

Restoring blue carbon ecosystems.

Mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses have experienced extensive historical reduction in extent due to direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic land use change. Habitat loss has contributed carbon emissions and led to foregone opportunities for carbon sequestration, which are disproportionately large due to high 'blue carbon' stocks and sequestration rates in these coastal ecosystems. As such, there has been a rapid increase in interest in using coastal habitat restoration as a climate change mitigation tool.

Variations in biophysical characteristics of mangroves along retreating and advancing shorelines.

Mangrove shoreline retreat or advance is a natural process in a mangrove delta. However, due to various natural and anthropogenic stressors, mangrove shoreline retreat is the second largest cause of mangrove loss globally. It is important to understand the scale at which mangrove shoreline changes are causing biophysical changes along the mangrove shorelines and, in turn, understand if certain biophysical characteristics can explain the changes along the shoreline.

Planning hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands: Key model considerations and solutions.

The hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands is an emerging approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change and enhancing ecosystem services such as improved water quality and biodiversity. This paper synthesises current knowledge on selecting appropriate modelling approaches for hydrological restoration projects. The selection of a modelling approach is based on project-specific factors, such as costs, risks, and uncertainties, and aligns with the overall project objectives.

Stronger increases but greater variability in global mangrove productivity compared to that of adjacent terrestrial forests.

Mangrove forests are a highly productive ecosystem with important potential to offset anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Mangroves are expected to respond differently to climate change compared to terrestrial forests owing to their location in the tidal environment and unique ecophysiological characteristics, but the magnitude of difference remains uncertain at the global scale. Here we use satellite observations to examine mean trends and interannual variability in the productivity of global mangrove forests and nearby terrestrial evergreen broadleaf forests from 2001 to 2020.

Uncertainties in deforestation emission baseline methodologies and implications for carbon markets.

Carbon credits generated through jurisdictional-scale avoided deforestation projects require accurate estimates of deforestation emission baselines, but there are serious challenges to their robustness. We assessed the variability, accuracy, and uncertainty of baselining methods by applying sensitivity and variable importance analysis on a range of typically-used methods and parameters for 2,794 jurisdictions worldwide. The median jurisdiction's deforestation emission baseline varied by 171% (90% range: 87%-440%) of its mean, with a median forecast error of 0.

Blue carbon assessments of seagrass and mangrove ecosystems in South and Southeast Asia: Current progress and knowledge gaps.

Coastal blue carbon ecosystems can be an important nature-based solution for mitigating climate change, when emphasis is given to their protection, management, and restoration. Globally, there has been a rapid increase in blue carbon research in the last few decades, with substantial investments on national scales by the European Union, the USA, Australia, Seychelles, and Belize. Blue carbon ecosystems in South and Southeast Asia are globally diverse, highly productive and could represent a global hotspot for carbon sequestration and storage.

Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems.

Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers.

Salinity reduces site quality and mangrove forest functions. From monitoring to understanding.

Mangroves continue to be threatened across their range by a mix of anthropogenic and climate change-related stress. Climate change-induced salinity is likely to alter the structure and functions of highly productive mangrove systems. However, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how rising salinity affects forest structure and functions because of the limited availability of mangrove field data.

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise.

Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience.

Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery.

There is an urgent need to halt and reverse loss of mangroves and seagrass to protect and increase the ecosystem services they provide to coastal communities, such as enhancing coastal resilience and contributing to climate stability. Ambitious targets for their recovery can inspire public and private investment in conservation, but the expected outcomes of different protection and restoration strategies are unclear. We estimated potential recovery of mangroves and seagrass through gains in ecosystem extent to the year 2070 under a range of protection and restoration strategies implemented until the year 2050.

A meta-analysis of the ecological and economic outcomes of mangrove restoration.

Mangrove restoration has become a popular strategy to ensure the critical functions and economic benefits of this ecosystem. This study conducts a meta-analysis of the peer-reviewed literature on the outcomes of mangrove restoration. On aggregate, restored mangroves provide higher ecosystem functions than unvegetated tidal flats but lower than natural mangrove stands (respectively RR' = 0.

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss.

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO sequestration.

Global potential and limits of mangrove blue carbon for climate change mitigation.

Despite the outsized role of mangrove forests in sustaining biodiversity, ecosystem function, and local livelihoods, the protection of these vital habitats through blue carbon financing has been limited. Here, we quantify the extent of this missed conservation and financial opportunity, showing that the protection of ∼20% of the world's mangrove forests (2.6 Mha) can be funded through carbon financing.

Respective contribution of urban wastewater and mangroves on nutrient dynamics in a tropical estuary during the monsoon season.

Estuaries of Southeast Asia are increasingly impacted by land-cover changes and pollution. Here, our research objectives were to (1) determine the origins of nutrient loads along the Can Gio estuary (Vietnam) and (2) identify the processes that affect the nutrient pools during the monsoon. We constructed four 24-h time-series along the salinity gradient measuring nutrient concentrations and stable isotopes values.

A global biophysical typology of mangroves and its relevance for ecosystem structure and deforestation.

Mangrove forests provide many ecosystem services but are among the world's most threatened ecosystems. Mangroves vary substantially according to their geomorphic and sedimentary setting; while several conceptual frameworks describe these settings, their spatial distribution has not been quantified. Here, we present a new global mangrove biophysical typology and show that, based on their 2016 extent, 40.

Climate change mitigation potential of wetlands and the cost-effectiveness of their restoration.

The cost-effective mitigation of climate change through nature-based carbon dioxide removal strategies has gained substantial policy attention. Inland and coastal wetlands (specifically boreal, temperate and tropical peatlands; tundra; floodplains; freshwater marshes; saltmarshes; and mangroves) are among the most efficient natural long-term carbon sinks. Yet, they also release methane (CH) that can offset the carbon they sequester.

Global trends in mangrove forest fragmentation.

Fragmentation is a major driver of ecosystem degradation, reducing the capacity of habitats to provide many important ecosystem services. Mangrove ecosystem services, such as erosion prevention, shoreline protection and mitigation of climate change (through carbon sequestration), depend on the size and arrangement of forest patches, but we know little about broad-scale patterns of mangrove forest fragmentation. Here we conduct a multi-scale analysis using global estimates of mangrove density and regional drivers of mangrove deforestation to map relationships between habitat loss and fragmentation.

Mangrove blue carbon stocks and dynamics are controlled by hydrogeomorphic settings and land-use change.

Globally, carbon-rich mangrove forests are deforested and degraded due to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). The impact of mangrove deforestation on carbon emissions has been reported on a global scale; however, uncertainty remains at subnational scales due to geographical variability and field data limitations. We present an assessment of blue carbon storage at five mangrove sites across West Papua Province, Indonesia, a region that supports 10% of the world's mangrove area.