Projecting Uncertainty in Ecosystem Persistence Under Climate Change.

Global projections of ecosystem responses to increasing climatic and anthropogenic pressures are needed to inform adaptation planning. However, data of appropriate spatiotemporal resolution are often not available to parameterize complex environmental processes at the global scale. Modeling approaches that can project the probability of ecosystem persistence when parameter uncertainty is high may offer a way forward.

Soil carbon in the world's tidal marshes.

Tidal marshes are threatened coastal ecosystems known for their capacity to store large amounts of carbon in their water-logged soils. Accurate quantification and mapping of global tidal marshes soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is of considerable value to conservation efforts. Here, we used training data from 3710 unique locations, landscape-level environmental drivers and a global tidal marsh extent map to produce a global, spatially explicit map of SOC storage in tidal marshes at 30 m resolution.

Four decades of data indicate that planted mangroves stored up to 75% of the carbon stocks found in intact mature stands.

Mangroves' ability to store carbon (C) has long been recognized, but little is known about whether planted mangroves can store C as efficiently as naturally established (i.e., intact) stands and in which time frame.

Global dataset of soil organic carbon in tidal marshes.

Tidal marshes store large amounts of organic carbon in their soils. Field data quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks provide an important resource for researchers, natural resource managers, and policy-makers working towards the protection, restoration, and valuation of these ecosystems. We collated a global dataset of tidal marsh soil organic carbon (MarSOC) from 99 studies that includes location, soil depth, site name, dry bulk density, SOC, and/or soil organic matter (SOM).

Global mangrove soil organic carbon stocks dataset at 30 m resolution for the year 2020 based on spatiotemporal predictive machine learning.

This dataset presents global soil organic carbon stocks in mangrove forests at 30 m resolution, predicted for 2020. We used spatiotemporal ensemble machine learning to produce predictions of soil organic carbon content and bulk density (BD) to 1 m soil depth, which were then aggregated to calculate soil organic carbon stocks. This was done by using training data points of both SOC (%) and BD in mangroves from a global dataset and from recently published studies, and globally consistent predictive covariate layers.

Co-occurrence of biodiversity, carbon storage, coastal protection, and fish and invertebrate production to inform global mangrove conservation planning.

Mangrove forests support unique biodiversity and provide a suite of ecosystem services (ES) that benefit people. Decades of continual mangrove loss and degradation have necessitated global efforts to protect and restore this important ecosystem. Generating and evaluating asset maps of biodiversity and ES is an important precursor to identifying locations that can deliver conservation outcomes across varying scales, such as maximising the co-occurrence of specific ES.

Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems.

Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers.

A global horizon scan of issues impacting marine and coastal biodiversity conservation.

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years.

High-resolution mapping of losses and gains of Earth's tidal wetlands.

Tidal wetlands are expected to respond dynamically to global environmental change, but the extent to which wetland losses have been offset by gains remains poorly understood. We developed a global analysis of satellite data to simultaneously monitor change in three highly interconnected intertidal ecosystem types-tidal flats, tidal marshes, and mangroves-from 1999 to 2019. Globally, 13,700 square kilometers of tidal wetlands have been lost, but these have been substantially offset by gains of 9700 km, leading to a net change of -4000 km over two decades.

Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery.

There is an urgent need to halt and reverse loss of mangroves and seagrass to protect and increase the ecosystem services they provide to coastal communities, such as enhancing coastal resilience and contributing to climate stability. Ambitious targets for their recovery can inspire public and private investment in conservation, but the expected outcomes of different protection and restoration strategies are unclear. We estimated potential recovery of mangroves and seagrass through gains in ecosystem extent to the year 2070 under a range of protection and restoration strategies implemented until the year 2050.

The scale of Nigeria's involvement in the trans-national illegal pangolin trade: Temporal and spatial patterns and the effectiveness of wildlife trade regulations.

The Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) prohibits commercial trans-national trade in pangolin specimens. However, African pangolins are continually trafficked to Asia for traditional medicine, with Nigeria considered a key hub. Using reported Nigeria-linked pangolin seizure data and interviews with Nigerian law enforcement officials, we a) characterised Nigeria's involvement in global pangolin trafficking January 2010-September 2021, particularly observing trafficking trends after pangolin's CITES Appendix I listing; b) estimated the minimum number of pangolins whose scales are in Nigeria-linked seizures January 2010-September 2021, and; c) assessed ongoing efforts within Nigeria to curb pangolin trafficking.

Upscaling tropical restoration to deliver environmental benefits and socially equitable outcomes.

The UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration offers immense potential to return hundreds of millions of hectares of degraded tropical landscapes to functioning ecosystems. Well-designed restoration can tackle multiple Sustainable Development Goals, driving synergistic benefits for biodiversity, ecosystem services, agricultural and timber production, and local livelihoods at large spatial scales. To deliver on this potential, restoration efforts must recognise and reduce trade-offs among objectives, and minimize competition with food production and conservation of native ecosystems.

A global biophysical typology of mangroves and its relevance for ecosystem structure and deforestation.

Mangrove forests provide many ecosystem services but are among the world's most threatened ecosystems. Mangroves vary substantially according to their geomorphic and sedimentary setting; while several conceptual frameworks describe these settings, their spatial distribution has not been quantified. Here, we present a new global mangrove biophysical typology and show that, based on their 2016 extent, 40.

Mangrove blue carbon stocks and dynamics are controlled by hydrogeomorphic settings and land-use change.

Globally, carbon-rich mangrove forests are deforested and degraded due to land-use and land-cover change (LULCC). The impact of mangrove deforestation on carbon emissions has been reported on a global scale; however, uncertainty remains at subnational scales due to geographical variability and field data limitations. We present an assessment of blue carbon storage at five mangrove sites across West Papua Province, Indonesia, a region that supports 10% of the world's mangrove area.

Worldwide insect declines: An important message, but interpret with caution.

A recent paper claiming evidence of global insect declines achieved huge media attention, including claims of "insectaggedon" and a "collapse of nature." Here, we argue that while many insects are declining in many places around the world, the study has important limitations that should be highlighted. We emphasise the robust evidence of large and rapid insect declines present in the literature, while also highlighting the limitations of the original study.

Effects of Water Loss on New Mexico Spadefoot Toad (Spea multiplicata) Development, Spleen Cellularity, and Corticosterone Levels.

Amphibian metamorphosis is complex and larval morphology and physiology are completely restructured during this time. Amphibians that live in unpredictable environments are often exposed to stressors that can directly and indirectly alter physiological systems during development, with subsequent consequences (carryover effects) later in life. In this study, we investigated the effects of water level reduction on development rate, spleen size and cellularity, and examined the role of corticosterone levels in premetamorphic, metamorphic, and postmetamorphic New Mexico spadefoot toads (Spea multiplicata).

Advancing Environmental Flow Science: Developing Frameworks for Altered Landscapes and Integrating Efforts Across Disciplines.

Environmental flows represent a legal mechanism to balance existing and future water uses and sustain non-use values. Here, we identify current challenges, provide examples where they are important, and suggest research advances that would benefit environmental flow science. Specifically, environmental flow science would benefit by (1) developing approaches to address streamflow needs in highly modified landscapes where historic flows do not provide reasonable comparisons, (2) integrating water quality needs where interactions are apparent with quantity but not necessarily the proximate factor of the ecological degradation, especially as frequency and magnitudes of inflows to bays and estuaries, (3) providing a better understanding of the ecological needs of native species to offset the often unintended consequences of benefiting non-native species or their impact on flows, (4) improving our understanding of the non-use economic value to balance consumptive economic values, and (5) increasing our understanding of the stakeholder socioeconomic spatial distribution of attitudes and perceptions across the landscape.

Interacting effects of discharge and channel morphology on transport of semibuoyant fish eggs in large, altered river systems.

Habitat fragmentation and flow regulation are significant factors related to the decline and extinction of freshwater biota. Pelagic-broadcast spawning cyprinids require moving water and some length of unfragmented stream to complete their life cycle. However, it is unknown how discharge and habitat features interact at multiple spatial scales to alter the transport of semi-buoyant fish eggs.

Backcasting the decline of a vulnerable Great Plains reproductive ecotype: identifying threats and conservation priorities.

Conservation efforts for threatened or endangered species are challenging because the multi-scale factors that relate to their decline or inhibit their recovery are often unknown. To further exacerbate matters, the perceptions associated with the mechanisms of species decline are often viewed myopically rather than across the entire species range. We used over 80 years of fish presence data collected from the Great Plains and associated ecoregions of the United States, to investigate the relative influence of changing environmental factors on the historic and current truncated distributions of the Arkansas River shiner Notropis girardi.