Quantifying the contributions of cardiovascular risk factors to cardiovascular disease trends in 21st century Japan: a microsimulation study.

Background: Recent stagnation or worsening trends in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and obesity, might slow the decline in Japan's CVD burden. We aimed to quantify the impact of national changes in CVD risk factor distributions on Japan's CVD burden from 2001 to 2019.

Methods: We conducted a microsimulation study with counterfactual analysis using IMPACT, a validated model based on real-world data.

Estimating the health impact of menu calorie labelling policy and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in two European countries: a microsimulation study.

Aims: To estimate and compare the impacts of menu calorie labelling and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation on reducing obesity prevalence, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and equity-related impacts, in Belgium and Germany.

Methods: We used microsimulation models over a 20-year simulation horizon (2022-2041). We modelled the impacts through assumed changes in energy intake due to consumer responses and food industry reformulation.

Estimating the burden of underdiagnosis within England: A modelling study of linked primary care data.

Introduction: Undiagnosed chronic disease has serious health consequences, and variation in rates of underdiagnosis between populations can contribute to health inequalities. We aimed to estimate the level of undiagnosed disease of 11 common conditions and its variation across sociodemographic characteristics and regions in England.

Methods: We used linked primary care, hospital and mortality data on approximately 1.

Socioeconomic inequalities in accumulation of multimorbidity in England from 2019 to 2049: a microsimulation projection study.

Background: There are socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and its accumulation across the life course. Estimates of multimorbidity prevalence in English primary care increased by more than two-thirds from 2004 to 2019. We developed a microsimulation model to quantify current and projected multimorbidity inequalities in the English adult population.

Effect of calorie labelling in the out-of-home food sector on adult obesity prevalence, cardiovascular mortality, and social inequalities in England: a modelling study.

Background: England implemented a menu calorie labelling policy in large, out-of-home food businesses in 2022. We aimed to model the likely policy impact on population-level obesity and cardiovascular disease mortality, as well as the socioeconomic equity of estimated effects, in the adult population in England.

Methods: For this modelling analysis, we built a comparative assessment model using two scenarios: the current implementation scenario refers to actual deployment only in large (≥250 employees), out-of-home food businesses, whereas the full implementation scenario refers to deployment in every out-of-home food business.

Health, economic, and equity consequences of future tobacco control policies in England: a microsimulation study.

Background: Smoking still generates a huge, costly, and inequitable burden of disease. The UK tobacco-free generation target to reduce smoking prevalence to below 5% by 2030 will be missed if current trends continue. We aimed to determine whether additional policies could speed progress towards meeting the tobacco-free generation target.

Projected health and economic impacts of sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in Germany: A cross-validation modelling study.

Background: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implemented globally to reduce the burden of cardiometabolic diseases by disincentivizing consumption through increased prices (e.g., 1 peso/litre tax in Mexico) or incentivizing industry reformulation to reduce SSB sugar content (e.

Quantifying the mental health and economic impacts of prospective Universal Basic Income schemes among young people in the UK: a microsimulation modelling study.

Objective: Universal Basic Income (UBI)-a largely unconditional, regular payment to all adults to support basic needs-has been proposed as a policy to increase the size and security of household incomes and promote mental health. We aimed to quantify its long-term impact on mental health among young people in England.

Methods: We produced a discrete-time dynamic stochastic microsimulation that models a close-to-reality open cohort of synthetic individuals (2010-2030) based on data from Office for National Statistics and Understanding Society.

Forecasting the mortality burden of coronary heart disease and stroke in Germany: National trends and regional inequalities.

Background: The decline of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has slowed in many countries, including Germany. We examined the implications of this trend for future coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality in Germany considering persistent mortality inequalities between former East and West Germany.

Methods: We retrieved demographic and mortality data from 1991 to 2019 from the German Federal Statistical Office.

Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

Background: We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures.

Methods: We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan.

Inequalities in incident and prevalent multimorbidity in England, 2004-19: a population-based, descriptive study.

Background: The increasing burden of multimorbidity and its socioeconomic gradient poses unique challenges to the provision and structure of health care. We aimed to describe inequalities and trends over time in multimorbidity prevalence, incidence, and case fatality among adults of all ages in England using primary care electronic health records.

Methods: We used a random sample of 991 243 individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database registered at participating general practices within England between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2019, linked to the 2015 English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD).

Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis.

Background: Excessive sodium consumption is one of the leading dietary risk factors for non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), mediated by high blood pressure. Brazil has implemented voluntary sodium reduction targets with food industries since 2011. This study aimed to analyse the potential health and economic impact of these sodium reduction targets in Brazil from 2013 to 2032.

Modelling tool to support decision-making in the NHS Health Check programme: workshops, systematic review and co-production with users.

Background: Local authorities in England commission the NHS Health Check programme to invite everyone aged 40-74 years without pre-existing conditions for risk assessment and eventual intervention, if needed. However, the programme's effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and equity impact remain uncertain.

Aim: To develop a validated open-access flexible web-based model that enables local commissioners to quantify the cost-effectiveness and potential for equitable population health gain of the NHS Health Check programme.

Multimorbidity: the case for prevention.

Multimorbidity is of increasing concern for healthcare systems globally, particularly in the context of ageing population structures, such as in the European Union and the UK. Although there is growing attention on developing strategies to manage the health and healthcare burden of older patients with multimorbidity, little research or policy focus has been placed on how to best prevent the development of multimorbidity in future generations. In this research agenda piece, we argue for a shift from a sole focus on the management of multimorbidity in old age to a multimorbidity agenda that considers prevention and management throughout the life-course.

Evaluating stakeholder involvement in building a decision support tool for NHS health checks: co-producing the WorkHORSE study.

Background: Stakeholder engagement is being increasingly recognised as an important way to achieving impact in public health. The WorkHORSE (Working Health Outcomes Research Simulation Environment) project was designed to continuously engage with stakeholders to inform the development of an open access modelling tool to enable commissioners to quantify the potential cost-effectiveness and equity of the NHS Health Check Programme. An objective of the project was to evaluate the involvement of stakeholders in co-producing the WorkHORSE computer modelling tool and examine how they perceived their involvement in the model building process and ultimately contributed to the strengthening and relevance of the modelling tool.

Engaging with stakeholders to inform the development of a decision-support tool for the NHS health check programme: qualitative study.

Background: The NHS Health Check Programme is a risk-reduction programme offered to all adults in England aged 40-74 years. Previous studies mainly focused on patient perspectives and programme delivery; however, delivery varies, and costs are substantial. We were therefore working with key stakeholders to develop and co-produce an NHS Health Check Programme modelling tool (workHORSE) for commissioners to quantify local effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and equity.

Health and Climate Impacts of Scaling Adoption of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) for Clean Household Cooking in Cameroon: A Modeling Study.

Background: The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target.

Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking.

Universal or targeted cardiovascular screening? Modelling study using a sector-specific distributional cost effectiveness analysis.

Distributional cost effectiveness analysis is a new method that can help to redesign prevention programmes by explicitly modelling the distribution of health opportunity costs as well as the distribution of health benefits. Previously we modelled cardiovascular disease (CVD) screening audit data from Liverpool, UK to see if the city could redesign its cardiovascular screening programme to enhance its cost effectiveness and equity. Building on this previous analysis, we explicitly examined the distribution of health opportunity costs and we looked at new redesign options co-designed with stakeholders.

FDA Sodium Reduction Targets and the Food Industry: Are There Incentives to Reformulate? Microsimulation Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Unlabelled: Policy Points The World Health Organization has recommended sodium reduction as a "best buy" to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD). Despite this, Congress has temporarily blocked the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) from implementing voluntary industry targets for sodium reduction in processed foods, the implementation of which could cost the industry around $16 billion over 10 years. We modeled the health and economic impact of meeting the two-year and ten-year FDA targets, from the perspective of people working in the food system itself, over 20 years, from 2017 to 2036.

Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: interrupted time series and microsimulation study.

Background: In 2011, England introduced the Public Health Responsibility Deal (RD), a public-private partnership (PPP) which gave greater freedom to the food industry to set and monitor targets for salt intakes. We estimated the impact of the RD on trends in salt intake and associated changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) incidence, mortality and economic costs in England from 2011-2025.

Methods: We used interrupted time series models with 24 hours' urine sample data and the IMPACT microsimulation model to estimate impacts of changes in salt consumption on CVD and GCa incidence, mortality and economic impacts, as well as equity impacts.