Opportunities for decentralised solar power to improve reliability, reduce emissions and avoid stranded assets.

Despite recent improvements to electricity access in lower-income countries, reliability remains low for many. Local renewable electricity infrastructure supplementing the national grid offers a promising route to improved reliability for rural communities. However, improvements in the reliability of national grids create risks for investors including the possibility of "stranded" renewable assets.

Ten new insights in climate science 2024.

The years 2023 and 2024 were characterized by unprecedented warming across the globe, underscoring the urgency of climate action. Robust science advice for decision makers on subjects as complex as climate change requires deep cross- and interdisciplinary understanding. However, navigating the ever-expanding and diverse peer-reviewed literature on climate change is enormously challenging for individual researchers.

Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models.

Climate forcings by greenhouse gases and aerosols cause an imbalance at the top of the atmosphere between the net incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation from Earth. This Earth energy imbalance has strengthened over the period 2001 to 2023 with satellite data. Here, we show that low climate sensitivity models fail to reproduce the trend in Earth energy imbalance, particularly in the individual longwave and shortwave contributions to the imbalance trend.

Evolution of phenotypic plasticity during environmental fluctuations.

Evolution in variable environments is predicted to disfavor genetic canalization and instead select for alternative strategies, such as phenotypic plasticity or possibly bet-hedging, depending on the accuracy of environmental cues and type of variation. While these two alternatives are often contrasted in theoretical studies, their evolution are seldom studied together in empirical work. We used experimental evolution for 30 generations in the nematode worm Caenorhabditis remanei to simultaneously study the evolution of plasticity and bet-hedging in environments differing only in their temperature variability, where one regime is exposed to faster temperature cycles between 20°C and 25°C, with little autocorrelation between parent and offspring environment, while the other regime had slowly increasing temperature with high autocorrelation in temperature between parent and offspring.

From inequalities to vulnerability paradoxes: juxtaposing older adults' heat mortality risk and heat experiences.

Background: Increasing temperatures across the globe, including in Europe, pose one of the biggest threats to human health and wellbeing. Different kinds of inequalities, determined by age, sex/gender, isolation, socio-economic status, occupation, living in the city, and health situation, create vulnerability factors influencing people's heat-related mortality risk and their daily experiences during summer.

Methods: Our study uses an interdisciplinary approach to research how intersecting inequalities generate vulnerabilities to heat stress among older adults (65+) in two European cities: Warsaw and Madrid.

Vertical canopy gradients of respiration drive plant carbon budgets and leaf area index.

Despite its importance for determining global carbon fluxes, leaf respiration remains poorly constrained in land surface models (LSMs). We tested the sensitivity of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model - Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (ELM-FATES) to variation in the canopy gradients of leaf maintenance respiration (R). We ran global and point simulations varying the canopy gradient of R to explore the impacts on forest structure, composition, and carbon cycling.

Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions.

The loss of ecosystem carbon (the sum of vegetation, litter, and soil carbon) may occur in a permafrost region under mitigation pathways, which could reduce the efficiency of carbon dioxide removal. Here, we investigate changes in permafrost under net-zero and negative emissions, based on idealized emission-driven simulations using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. While acting as a net ecosystem carbon sink during most of the positive emission phase, permafrost becomes a net ecosystem carbon source just before reaching net-zero and negative emissions.

Impacts of irrigation expansion on moist-heat stress based on IRRMIP results.

Irrigation rapidly expanded during the 20 century, affecting climate via water, energy, and biogeochemical changes. Previous assessments of these effects predominantly relied on a single Earth System Model, and therefore suffered from structural model uncertainties. Here we quantify the impacts of historical irrigation expansion on climate by analysing simulation results from six Earth system models participating in the Irrigation Model Intercomparison Project (IRRMIP).

Global CO uptake by cement materials accounts 1930-2023.

The majority of the carbon footprint of the cement industry originates from the decomposition of alkaline carbonates during clinker production. Recent studies have demonstrated that calcium oxides and other alkaline oxides in cement materials can sequester CO through the carbonation process and partially offset the carbon emissions generated during cement production. This study employs a comprehensive analytical model to estimate the CO uptake via hydrated cement carbonation, including concrete, mortar, construction waste, and cement kiln dust (CKD), covering major cement production and consumption regions worldwide from 1930 to 2023.

Independent effects of long and short-term exposures to non-optimal increased temperature on mortality.

Although the short-term heat effects are well-established, longer-term effects, beyond those, have recently received attention, in the context of climate change. Our study aims to investigate the potential effects of long-term exposure to non-optimal warm period temperatures on all-cause mortality in four large regions in the UK, Norway, Italy, and Greece. Daily all-cause mortality counts from 1996 to 2018 for four European NUTS-2 regions including 52-662 small areas were collected and associated with spatiotemporal temperature estimates.

Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks.

Achieving net-zero global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO), with declining emissions of other greenhouse gases, is widely expected to halt global warming. CO emissions will continue to drive warming until fully balanced by active anthropogenic CO removals. For practical reasons, however, many greenhouse gas accounting systems allow some 'passive' CO uptake, such as enhanced vegetation growth owing to CO fertilization, to be included as removals in the definition of net anthropogenic emissions.

Transforming Aviation's Impact on the Climate: Rethinking the Research Strategy.

Aviation is under tremendous pressure to mitigate its impacts on the climate, but the best response strategies are unknown today due to deep uncertainties. How low-emission fuels will scale to levels relevant for the industry, along with the best strategies for managing contrails and other non-CO effects, are unknowable today with unknown cost and disruption. A conventional risk-based approach that involves investment across a known set of options is unworkable; instead, we argue that an experimentalist approach is needed that addresses deep uncertainties head on.

Atmospheric health burden across the century and the accelerating impact of temperature compared to pollution.

Anthropogenic emissions alter atmospheric composition and therefore the climate, with implications for air pollution- and climate-related human health. Mortality attributable to air pollution and non-optimal temperature is a major concern, expected to shift under future climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. In this work, results from numerical simulations are used to assess future changes in mortality attributable to long-term exposure to both non-optimal temperature and air pollution simultaneously.

Reducing the cost of capital to finance the energy transition in developing countries.

Climate stabilization requires the mobilization of substantial investments in low- and zero-carbon technologies, especially in emerging and developing economies. However, access to stable and affordable finance varies dramatically across countries. Models used to evaluate the energy transition do not differentiate regional financing costs and therefore cannot study risk-sharing mechanisms for renewable electricity generation.

Impacts of land-use and land-cover changes on temperature-related mortality.

Background: Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) can substantially affect climate through biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects. Here, we examine the future temperature-mortality impact for two contrasting LULCC scenarios in a background climate of low greenhouse gas concentrations. The first LULCC scenario implies a globally sustainable land use and socioeconomic development (sustainability).

Estimating carbon leakage from aviation by combining sectoral and general equilibrium models.

This article describes a procedure for estimating carbon leakage from policies targeting aviation based on alternative scenarios. The key innovation to ensure greater robustness is that all scenarios are simulated by two different types of models: a sectoral model for aviation and a computable general equilibrium model.•The implementation of scenario simulation in both models is explained•The calculation of carbon leakage is explained step by step.

Effect modification of air pollution on the association between heat and mortality in five European countries.

Background: Evidence suggests that air pollution modifies the association between heat and mortality. However, most studies have been conducted in cities without rural data. This time-series study examined potential effect modification of particulate matter (PM) and ozone (O) on heat-related mortality using small-area data from five European countries, and explored the influence of area characteristics.

Heat and cause-specific cardiopulmonary mortality in Germany: a case-crossover study using small-area assessment.

Background: High temperatures have been associated with increased mortality, with evidence reported predominately in large cities and for total cardiovascular or respiratory deaths. This case-crossover study examined heat-related cause-specific cardiopulmonary mortality and vulnerability factors using small-area data from Germany.

Methods: We analyzed daily counts of cause-specific cardiopulmonary deaths from 380 German districts (2000-2016) and daily mean temperatures estimated by spatial-temporal models.

Perspectives on connecting climate change and health.

Over the past century, the Earth's climate has undergone rapid and unprecedented changes, manifested in a noticeable increase in average global temperature. This has led to shifts in precipitation patterns, increased frequency of extreme weather events (e.g.

Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects.

Large-scale afforestation programmes are generally presented as effective ways of increasing the terrestrial carbon sink while preserving water availability and biodiversity. Yet, a meta-analysis of both numerical and observational studies suggests that further research is needed to support this view. The use of inappropriate concepts (e.

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest.

Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate the stand-level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama.

Valuation and perception of the costs of climate change on health.

Background And Aims: Climate change affects our societies and lives through our economies, our livelihoods, and our health. Economic losses of climate change are estimated at $23 trillion, largely through externalities due to premature mortality, healthcare expenditure, and health-related work losses. Even if there are established methods to quantify the health economic burden, there is limited information on how people perceive this information.

Global high-resolution growth projections dataset for rooftop area consistent with the shared socioeconomic pathways, 2020-2050.

Assessment of current and future growth in the global rooftop area is important for understanding and planning for a robust and sustainable decentralised energy system. These estimates are also important for urban planning studies and designing sustainable cities thereby forwarding the ethos of the Sustainable Development Goals 7 (clean energy), 11 (sustainable cities), 13 (climate action) and 15 (life on land). Here, we develop a machine learning framework that trains on big data containing ~700 million open-source building footprints, global land cover, road, and population datasets to generate globally harmonised estimates of growth in rooftop area for five different future growth narratives covered by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.