[Analysis and prediction of global burden due to cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2035].

Objective: To investigate the trends in the global burden due to cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the global burden of cystic echinococcosis from 2022 to 2035, so as to provide insights into formulation of the cystic echinococcosis control strategy.

Methods: The global age-standardized prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates and their 95% uncertainty intervals () of cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021 were captured from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, and the trends in the global burden of cystic echinococcosis from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using the Joinpoint regression model. The associations between the global burden of cystic echinococcosis and socio-demographic index (SDI) were examined using a smoothing spline model and frontier analysis, and the global burden of cystic echinococcosis was projected from 2022 to 2035 using the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.

Results: The global agestandardized prevalence, mortality and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis were 7.69/10 [95% : (6.27/10, 9.51/10)], 0.02/10 [95% : (0.01/10, 0.02/10)], and 1.32/10 [95% : (0.99/10, 1.69/10)] in 2021. The global age-standardized prevalence of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a rise by 0.14% per year from 1990 to 2021, and the global age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a decline by 4.68% and 4.01% per year from 1990 to 2021, respectively. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that global age-standardized prevalence of cystic echinococcosis appeared a tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2000 [annual percent change (APC) = -0.66%, 95% confidence interval (): (-0.70%, -0.61%)] and from 2005 to 2015 [APC = -0.88%, 95% : (-0.93%, -0.82%)], and towards a rise from 2000 to 2005 [APC = 3.68%, 95% : (3.49%, 3.87%)] and from 2015 to 2021 [APC=0.30%, 95%: (0.19%, 0.40%)].Theagestandardized prevalence ( = -0.17, < 0.05), mortality ( = -0.67, < 0.05) and DALYs rates of cystic echinococcosis ( = -0.60, < 0.05) all correlated negatively with SDI across 21 geographical regions from 1990 to 2021, and the age-standardized mortality ( = -0.61, < 0.05) and DALYs rates ( = -0.44, < 0.05) both correlated negatively with SDI across 204 countries and territories in 2021. Frontier analysis revealed that the age-standardized DALYs rate of cystic echinococcosis was still not in line with the frontier in some high-SDI countries or territories. In addition, the global age-standardized prevalence was projected with the BAPC model to appear a tendency towards a rise among both men [estimated annual percent change (EAPC) = 0.18%, 95% : (0.13%, 0.23%)] and women [EAPC = 0.29%, 95% : (0.24%, 0.34%)] from 2022 to 2035, and the global age-standardized mortality [men: EAPC = -4.71%, 95% : (-4.71%, -4.37%); women: EAPC = -4.74%, 95% : (-4.74%, -4.74%)] and DALYs rates [men: EAPC = -3.35%, 95% : (-3.36%, -3.34%); women: EAPC = -3.17%, 95% : (-3.18%, -3.16%)] were projected to appear a tendency towards a decline among both men and women.

Conclusions: The global burden of cystic echinococcosis appeared an overall tendency towards a decline from 1990 to 2021; however, the global prevalence of cystic echinococcosis is projected to appear a tendency towards a rise from 2022 to 2035. Intensified cystic echinococcosis control programmes are recommended.