The current status and predicted climate-driven range expansion of Rhipicephalus microplus in northern Vietnam.

Rhipicephalus microplus is a major ectoparasite of cattle, significantly impacting animal health and livestock productivity in tropical and subtropical regions. This study investigated the current status and predicted the future distribution of R. microplus in northern Vietnam under climate change scenarios. Field surveys were conducted across 25 provinces from 2022 to 2024, collecting data on tick infestation by province, season and host species. Statistical analyses were performed by multivariable logistic regression. To forecast future distribution, the MaxEnt model was employed under RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios for the years 2050 and 2070. The presence of R. microplus was confirmed in 80.6 % of survey sites, with a higher prevalence observed during the summer and autumn seasons. Statistical analysis revealed that season and host species were significant predictors of tick presence. The MaxEnt model projected an expansion of suitable habitats for R. microplus toward higher latitudes and altitudes, especially under the high-emission scenario (RCP-8.5). This is the first study to combine field-based prevalence data with climate-driven MaxEnt modeling for R. microplus in Vietnam. The findings highlight the potential impact of climate change on tick ecology and underscore the need for adaptive control strategies to mitigate the spread of tick-borne diseases in northern Vietnam.