Applying Artificial Intelligence to Quantify Body Composition on Abdominal CTs and Better Predict Kidney Transplantation Wait-List Mortality.

Background: Prekidney transplant evaluation routinely includes abdominal CT for presurgical vascular assessment. A wealth of body composition data are available from these CT examinations, but they remain an underused source of data, often missing from prognostication models, as these measurements require organ segmentation not routinely performed clinically by radiologists. We hypothesize that artificial intelligence facilitates accurate extraction of abdominal CT body composition data, allowing better prediction of outcomes.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective, single-center observational study of kidney transplant candidates wait-listed between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2017, with available CT data. Validated deep learning models quantified body composition including fat, aortic calcification, bone density, and muscle mass. Logistic regression was used to compare body composition data to Expected Post-Transplant Survival Score (EPTS) as a predictor of 5-year wait-list mortality.

Results: In all, 899 patients were followed for a median 943 days (interquartile range 320-1,697). Of 899, 589 (65.5%) were men and 680 of 899 (75.6%) were White, non-Hispanic. Of 899, 167 patients (18.6%) died while on the waiting list. Myosteatosis (defined as the lowest tertile of muscle attenuation) and increased total aortic and abdominal calcification were associated with increased 5-year wait-list mortality. Logistic regression showed that imaging parameters performed similarly to EPTS at predicting 5-year wait-list mortality (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.70 [0.64-0.75] versus 0.67 [0.62-0.72], respectively), and combining body composition parameters with EPTS led to a slight improved survival prediction (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.72, 95% confidence interval 0.66-0.76).

Conclusions: Fully automated quantification of body composition in kidney transplant candidates is feasible. Myosteatosis and atherosclerosis are associated with 5-year wait-list mortality.