Impact of On-Road U.S. Vehicle Electrification and Lightweighting on Critical Materials Demand.

The electrification of the transport sector is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the reliance on fossil fuels. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) depend on critical materials (CMs) for their batteries and electronic components, yet their widespread adoption may face constraints due to the limited availability of CMs. This study assesses the implications of vehicle electrification and lightweighting (material substitution) on the U.S. CM demand for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs). Market sales scenarios of 100% internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), 100% BEVs, and a 50%/50% mix are considered. The findings reveal that LDVs dominate the total CM demand despite MHDVs requiring more CMs per vehicle. Cobalt, graphite, lithium, neodymium, and nickel are critical for the 100% BEV adoption scenario, whereas palladium and rhodium are critical for ICEVs. LDV lightweighting increases total CM quantity per vehicle due to steel replacement with aluminum but reduces the vehicle's mass, operational energy consumption, and reliance on high-concern battery-related CMs. Transitioning from nickel manganese cobalt (NMC622) to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry reduces CM use but increases demand for strategic materials such as copper and phosphorus. This study uniquely evaluates U.S. CM demand for LDVs and MHDVs across conventional and electric powertrains and investigates light-weighting and battery chemistry impacts.