Development and validation of a dynamic nomogram for high care dependency during the hospital-family transition periods in older stroke patients.

Background: This research aimed to develop and validate a dynamic nomogram for predicting the risk of high care dependency during the hospital-family transition periods in older stroke patients.

Methods: 309 older stroke patients in the hospital-family transition periods who were treated in the Department of Neurology outpatient clinics of three general hospitals in Jinzhou, Liaoning Province from June to December 2023 were selected as the training set. The patients were investigated with the General Patient Information Questionnaire, the Care Dependency Scale (CDS), the Tilburg Frailty Inventory (TFI), the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAMA), the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale-17 (HAMD-17), and the Mini Nutrition Assessment Short Form (MNA-SF). Lasso-logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for high care dependency in older stroke patients during the hospital-family transition period, and a dynamic nomogram model was constructed. The model was uploaded in the form of a web page based on Shiny apps. The Bootstrap method was employed to repeat the process 1000 times for internal validation. The model's predictive efficacy was assessed using the calibration plot, decision curve analysis curve (DCA), and area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. A total of 133 older stroke patients during the hospital-family transition periods who visited the outpatient department of Neurology of three general hospitals in Jinzhou from January to March 2024 were selected as the validation set for external validation of the model.

Results: Based on the history of stroke, chronic disease, falls in the past 6 months, depression, malnutrition, and frailty, build a dynamic nomogram. The AUC under the ROC curves of the training set was 0.830 (95% CI: 0.784-0.875), and that of the validation set was 0.833 (95% CI: 0.766-0.900). The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve, and DCA results confirmed that the nomogram performed well in terms of clinical applicability.

Conclusion: The online dynamic nomogram constructed in this study has good specificity, sensitivity, and clinical practicability, which can be applied to senior stroke patients as a prediction and assessment tool for high care dependency. It is of great significance to guide the development of early intervention strategies, optimize resource allocation, and reduce the care burden on families and society.