Validating inborn error of immunity prevalence and risk with nationally representative electronic health record data.

Background: The 10 Warning Signs of Primary Immunodeficiency were created 30 years ago to advance recognition of inborn errors of immunity (IEI). However, no population-level assessment of their utility applied to electronic health record (EHR) data has been conducted.

Objective: We sought to quantify the value of having ≥2 warning signs (WS) toward diagnosing IEI using a highly representative real-world US cohort. A secondary goal was estimating the US prevalence of IEI.

Methods: In this cohort study, we accessed normalized and de-identified EHR data on 152 million US patients. An IEI cohort (n = 41,080), in which patients were defined by having at least 1 verifiable IEI diagnosis placed ≥2 times in their record, was compared with a matched set of controls (n = 250,262). WS were encoded along with relevant diagnoses, relative weights were calculated, and the proportion of IEI cases versus controls with ≥2 WS was compared.

Results: The proportion of IEI cases with ≥2 WS significantly differed from controls (0.33 vs 0.031; P < .0005, χ test). We also estimated a US IEI prevalence of 6 per 10,000 individuals (41,080/73,165,655; 0.056%). WS 9 (≥2 deep-seated infections), 7 (fungal infections), 5 (failure to thrive) and 4 (≥2 pneumonias in 1 year) were the most heavily weighted among the IEI cohort.

Conclusions: This nationally representative US-based cohort study demonstrates that presence of WS and associated clinical diagnoses can facilitate identification of patients with IEI from EHR data. In addition, we estimate that 6 in 10,000, or approximately 150,000 to 200,000 individuals are affected by IEI across the United States.