Risk of papillary thyroid carcinoma and nodular goiter associated with exposure to semi-volatile organic compounds: A multi-pollutant assessment based on machine learning algorithms.

Background: Exposure to semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) may link to thyroid nodule risk, but studies of mixed-SVOCs exposure effects are lacking. Traditional analytical methods are inadequate for dealing with mixed exposures, while machine learning (ML) seems to be a good way to fill the gaps in the field of environmental epidemiology research.

Objectives: Different ML algorithms were used to explore the relationship between mixed-SVOCs exposure and thyroid nodule.

Methods: A 1:1:1 age- and gender-matched case-control study was conducted in which 96 serum SVOCs were measured in 50 papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC), 50 nodular goiters (NG), and 50 controls. Different ML techniques such as Random Forest, AdaBoost were selected based on their predictive power, and variables were selected based on their weights in the models. Weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) were used to assess the mixed effects of the SVOCs exposure on thyroid nodule.

Results: Forty-three of 96 SVOCs with detection rate >80 % were included in the analysis. ML algorithms showed a consistent selection of SVOCs associated with thyroid nodule. Fluazifop-butyl and fenpropathrin are positively associated with PTC and NG in single compound models (all P < 0.05). WQS model shows that exposure to mixed-SVOCs was associated with an increased risk of PTC and NG, with the mixture dominated by fenpropathrin, followed by fluazifop-butyl and propham. In the BKMR model, mixtures showed a significant positive association with thyroid nodule risk at high exposure levels, and fluazifop-butyl showed positive effects associated with PTC and NG.

Conclusion: This study confirms the feasibility of ML methods for variable selection in high-dimensional complex data and showed that mixed exposure to SVOCs was associated with increased risk of PTC and NG. The observed association was primarily driven by fluazifop-butyl and fenpropathrin. The findings warranted further investigation.