Nonlinear relationship between untraditional lipid parameters and the risk of prediabetes: a large retrospective study based on Chinese adults.

Background: Abnormal lipid metabolism poses a risk for prediabetes. However, research on lipid parameters used to predict the risk of prediabetes is scarce, and the significance of traditional and untraditional lipid parameters remains unexplored in prediabetes. This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the association between 12 lipid parameters and prediabetes and their diagnostic value.

Methods: This cross-sectional study included data from 100,309 Chinese adults with normal baseline blood glucose levels. New onset of prediabetes was the outcome of concern. Untraditional lipid parameters were derived from traditional lipid parameters. Multivariate logistic regression and smooth curve fitting were used to examine the nonlinear relationship between lipid parameters and prediabetes. A two-piecewise linear regression model was used to identify the critical points of lipid parameters influencing the risk of prediabetes. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve estimated the predictive value of the lipid parameters.

Results: A total of 12,352 participants (12.31%) were newly diagnosed with prediabetes. Following adjustments for confounding covariables, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were negatively correlated with prediabetes risk. Conversely, total cholesterol, triglyceride (TG), lipoprotein combine index (LCI), atherogenic index of plasma (AIP), non-HDL-C, atherogenic coefficient, Castelli's index-I, remnant cholesterol (RC), and RC/HDL-C ratio displayed positive correlations. In younger adults, females, individuals with a family history of diabetes, and non-obese individuals, LCI, TG, and AIP exhibited higher predictive values for the onset of prediabetes compared to other lipid profiles.

Conclusion: Nonlinear associations were observed between untraditional lipid parameters and the risk of prediabetes. The predictive value of untraditional lipid parameters for prediabetes surpassed that of traditional lipid parameters, with LCI emerging as the most effective predictor for prediabetes.