External validation of scores predicting postoperative fistula after pancreatogastrostomy for pancreatoduodenectomy reconstruction. A single center experience.

Background: Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is the most frequent complication of pancreatic surgery and can be fatal. Selection and stratification of patients according to the risk of POPF are important for the perioperative management. Predictive metrics have been developed and validated in pancreatojejunostomy. Aim of this study is to assess whether the most used prognostic scores can be predictive of fistula following Wirsung-pancreaticogastrostomy (WPG) for pancreatoduodenectomy (PD)reconstruction.

Method: This single-center prospective observational study included 212 PDs between January 2008 and October 2022 with a standardized WPG. All component variables of the six scores were separately validated in our cohort. The overall predictive ability of the six fistula scores was measured and compared with the receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) method and expressed by the area under the ROC-curve (AUC). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed considering all risk factors in the scores in order to identify variables independently correlated with POPF in the WPG.

Results: CR-POPF occurred in 36 of 212 (17 %) patients. All scores showed poor prognostic stratification for the development of CR-POPF. The occurrence of CR-POPF was associated with nine factors: male gender (p = 0.003); BMI (kg/m) (p = 0.005); ASA (%) (p = 0.003); Soft pancreatic texture (%) (p = 0.003), Pathology (p = 0.008); MPD (p = 0.011); EBL (mL) (p = 0.021); Preop. Bilirubin (mg/dl) (p = 0.038); Preop. Glucose (mg/dl) (p = 0.0369). Male gender (OR: 5.54, CI 1.41-21.3) and soft consistency of the remnant pancreas (OR: 3.83, CI 1.14-12.8) were the only independent prognostic factors on multivariate analysis.

Conclusions: Our study including exclusively pancreatogastrostomies failed to validate the most used predictive scores for POPF. We found that only male gender and soft pancreatic texture are associated with POPF. Specific predictive scores following pancreatogasgtrostomy are needed.