Radiotherapy resources in Brazil (RT2030): a comprehensive analysis and projections for 2030.

Background: The demand for radiotherapy in Brazil is unfulfilled, and the scarcity of data on the national network hampers the development of effective policies. We aimed to evaluate the current situation, estimate demands and requirements, and provide an action plan to ensure access to radiotherapy for those in need by 2030.

Methods: The Brazilian Society for Radiation Oncology created a task force (RT2030) including physicians, medical physicists, policy makers, patient advocates, and suppliers, all of whom were major stakeholders involved in Brazilian radiotherapy care. The group was further divided into seven working groups to address themes associated with radiotherapy care in Brazil. From March 1, 2019, to Aug 3, 2020, there were monthly meetings between the group's leaders and the Central Committee and six general meetings. First, a comprehensive search of all different national databases was done to identify all radiotherapy centres. Questionnaires evaluating radiotherapy infrastructure and human resources and assing the availability, distribution, capacity, and workload of resources were created and sent to the radioprotection supervisor of each centre. Results were analysed nationally and across the country's regions and health-care systems. A pre-planned review of available databases was done to gather data on active radiation oncology centres and the distribution of radiotherapy machines (linear accelerators [LINACs]) across Brazil. We used national population and cancer incidence projections, recommended radiotherapy usage from the medical literature, and national working patterns to project radiotherapy demands in 2030. An action plan was established with suggestions to address the gaps and meet the demands.

Findings: The database search yielded 279 centres with an active radiotherapy registry. After applying predefined exclusion criteria, 263 centres were identified that provided external beam radiotherapy machines with or without brachytherapy. All 263 operational centres answered the questionnaires sent on Dec 9, 2019, which were then returned between Jan 1 and June 30, 2020. There were 409 therapy machines, 646 radiation oncologists, 533 physicists, and 230 989 patients undergoing radiotherapy (150 628 [65·2%] in the public health-care system and 80 937 [35·0%] in private). The mean annual occupation rate was 566 patients per treatment machine (SD 250). The number of residents per treatment machine ranged from 258 333 to 1 800 000. Technology availability varied considerably among regions and systems. In 2030, 639 994 new cancer cases are expected, which will require 332 797 radiotherapy courses. Therefore, 530 LINACs, 1079 radiation oncologists, and 1060 medical physicists will be needed.

Interpretation: The expected increase in cancer incidence in the coming years will probably increase the disparities in cancer care and the burden for Brazilian patients. We provide a roadmap of the current situation and the particularities of the Brazilian radiotherapy network, which can serve as a starting point for cancer policy planning to improve this scenario.

Funding: Accuray, BRAINLAB, Elekta, IBA, ONE medical solution, SUN NUCLEAR corporation, VARIAN, and ZIGMA.