Quantitative parameters derived from dual-energy computed tomography for the preoperative prediction of early recurrence in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the efficacy of quantitative parameters derived from dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) for the preoperative prediction of early recurrence (ER) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Methods: In total, 78 patients with ESCC who underwent radical esophagectomy and DECT from June 2019 to August 2020 were enrolled in this study. Normalized iodine concentration (NIC) and electron density (Rho) in tumors were measured using arterial and venous phase images, whereas unenhanced images were used to determine the effective atomic number (Z). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify independent risk predictors of ER. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed using the independent risk predictors. ER-free survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method.

Results: NIC in the arterial phase (A-NIC; hazards ratio [HR], 3.91; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.79-8.56; p = 0.001) and pathological grade (PG; HR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.32-5.49; p = 0.007) were identified as significant risk predictors of ER. The area under the curve of A-NIC for predicting ER in patients with ESCC was not significantly higher than that of PG (0.72 vs. 0.66, p = 0.441). In a stratified survival analysis, patients with high A-NIC or poorly differentiated ESCC had a higher rate of ER than those with low A-NIC or highly/moderately differentiated ESCC.

Conclusions: A-NIC derived from DECT can be used to noninvasively predict preoperative ER in patients with ESCC, with an efficacy comparable to that of pathological grade.

Clinical Relevance Statement: Preoperative quantitative measurement of dual-energy CT parameters can predict the early recurrence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and serve as an independent prognostic factor to guide clinical designation of personalized treatment.

Key Points: • Normalized iodine concentration in the arterial phase and pathological grade were independent risk predictors of early recurrence in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. • Normalized iodine concentration in the arterial phase may be a noninvasive imaging marker for preoperatively predicting early recurrence in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. • The efficacy of normalized iodine concentration in the arterial phase derived from dual-energy computed tomography for predicting early recurrence is comparable to that of pathological grade.