Future year ozone source attribution modeling study using CMAQ-ISAM.

To achieve the current United States National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) attainment level for ozone or particulate matter, current photochemical air quality models include tools to determine source apportionment and/or source sensitivity. Previous studies by the authors have used the Ozone and Particulate Matter Source Apportionment Technology and Higher-order Decoupled Direct Method probing tools in CAMx to investigate these source-receptor relationships for ozone. The recently available source apportionment for CMAQ, referred to as the Integrated Source Apportionment Method (ISAM), was used in this study to conduct future year (2030) source attribution modeling. The CMAQ-ISAM ozone source attribution results for selected cities across the U.S. showed boundary conditions were the dominant contributor to the future year highest July maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone concentrations. Point sources were generally larger contributors in the eastern U.S. than in the western U.S. The contributions of on-road mobile emissions were around 5 ppb at most of the cities selected for analysis. Off-road mobile source contributions were around 20 ppb or nearly 30%. Since boundary conditions play an important role in future year ozone levels, it is important to characterize future year boundary conditions accurately. The current implementation of ISAM in CMAQ 5.0.2 requires significant computing resources for ozone source attribution, making it difficult to conduct long-term simulations for large domains. The computing requirements for PM source attribution are even more onerous. CMAQ 5.2 was released after this study was completed, and does not include ISAM. If an efficient version of ISAM becomes available, it could be used in long-term ozone and PM2.5 studies. Implications: Ozone source attribution results provide useful information on important emission source contribution categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies. This study explains a new source apportionment technique, CMAQ-ISAM, and compares it to CAMx OSAT. The techniques have similar results: ozone's highest source contributor is boundary conditions, followed by point sources, then off-road mobile sources. The current version of ISAM in CMAQ 5.0.2 requires significant computing resources for ozone source attribution, while the computing requirements for PM source attribution are even more onerous. CMAQ 5.2 was released after this study was completed, and does not include ISAM.