Publications by authors named "Senthold Asseng"

Growing crops in controlled-environment indoor farming systems offers new ways of producing high-yield, pesticide-free, environmental-friendly food. However, it replaces soil with hydroponics and the sun with LED lights. Compared with the field, wheat grown indoors showed a much higher yield potential and bread-making quality parameters.

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Rising temperatures are projected to lead to a decline in global wheat production. However, this global trend belies the regional nuances of this impact, such as observed local yield increases in some field experiments in the winter wheat-growing region of China. This study combines detailed data from eight field warming experiments and outputs of simulation by an ensemble of three point-based crop models and an ensemble of 10 global gridded crop models to scrutinize the influence of warming on winter wheat yield in the main producing regions of China (MPC).

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With the changing climate, soil waterlogging is a growing threat to food security. Yet, contemporary approaches employed in crop models to simulate waterlogging are in their infancy. By analysing 21 crop models, we show that critical deficiencies persist in accurately simulating capillary rise, crop resistance to transient periods of waterlogging, crop recovery mechanisms, and the effects on soil nitrogen processes, phenology and yield components.

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Crop simulation models are routinely used to project the impacts of climate change on crop yields. However, such models perform poorly when simulating extreme historical events. We reviewed current crop models according to the processes they simulate.

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The production of high-quality food needs to increase to feed the growing global population. Controlled environment agriculture (CEA) systems in a vertical farm setting-in which several layers are stacked above each other, thus increasing the area for growth-can substantially boost productivity for crops, algae, mushrooms, fish, insects, and cultured meat. These systems are independent of climate, weather, and region, offering reduced environmental impact, although they come with high energy demands.

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High-yielding traits can potentially improve yield performance under climate change. However, data for these traits are limited to specific field sites. Despite this limitation, field-scale calibrated crop models for high-yielding traits are being applied over large scales using gridded weather and soil datasets.

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Article Synopsis
  • Scientists need to understand how climate change affects farming, so they use models to make predictions.*
  • There are a lot of uncertainties in these predictions, and it's important to figure out where they come from.*
  • The researchers found that most of the uncertainty comes from how the crop models work, and they have ideas to make these predictions more reliable.*
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Article Synopsis
  • * Research using advanced wheat simulation models indicates improved wheat genotypes can boost yields by 16% using current nitrogen fertilizer levels.
  • * To reach a potential 52% increase in yield under severe climate change conditions, nitrogen fertilizer use would need to quadruple, which could exacerbate environmental impacts, highlighting the need for better nitrogen management.
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Global food security requires food production to be increased in the coming decades. The closure of any existing genetic yield gap (Y) by genetic improvement could increase crop yield potential and global production. Here we estimated present global wheat Y, covering all wheat-growing environments and major producers, by optimizing local wheat cultivars using the wheat model Sirius.

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As crop yields are pushed closer to biophysical limits, achieving yield gains becomes increasingly challenging and will require more insight into deterministic pathways to yields. Here, we propose a wiring diagram as a platform to illustrate the interrelationships of the physiological traits that impact wheat yield potential and to serve as a decision support tool for crop scientists. The wiring diagram is based on the premise that crop yield is a function of photosynthesis (source), the investment of assimilates into reproductive organs (sinks) and the underlying processes that enable expression of both.

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France suffered, in 2016, the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information, and yield physiology. The 2016 yield was composed of up to 40% fewer grains that were up to 30% lighter than expected across eight research stations in France.

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Adaptive management of crop growing periods by adjusting sowing dates and cultivars is one of the central aspects of crop production systems, tightly connected to local climate. However, it is so far underrepresented in crop-model based assessments of yields under climate change. In this study, we integrate models of farmers' decision making with biophysical crop modeling at the global scale to simulate crop calendars adaptation and its effect on crop yields of maize, rice, sorghum, soybean and wheat.

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Building a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector requires the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies. By focusing on durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) in the Euro-Mediterranean region, we estimate the benefits of adapting through seasonal cultivar-selection supported by an idealised agro-climate service based on seasonal climate forecasts.

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Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change.

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Food systems are increasingly challenged to meet growing demand for specialty crops due to the effects of climate change and increased competition for resources. Here, we apply an integrated methodology that includes climate, crop, economic and life cycle assessment models to US potato and tomato supply chains. We find that supply chains for two popular processed products in the United States, French fries and pasta sauce, will be remarkably resilient, through planting adaptation strategies that avoid higher temperatures.

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Cassava is an important crop in the developing world. The goal of this study was to review published cassava models (18) for their capability to simulate storage root biomass and to categorize them into static and dynamic models. The majority (14) are dynamic and capture within season growth dynamics.

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Temperature affects many life processes, but its effect might be expected to differ among eukaryotic organisms inhabiting similar environments. We reviewed literature on temperature thresholds of humans, livestock, poultry, agricultural crops, and sparse examples of fisheries. We found that preferable and harmful temperatures are similar for humans, cattle, pigs, poultry, fish, and agricultural crops.

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Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length.

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This article elaborates on the life cycle assessment (LCA) protocol designed for formulating the life cycle inventories (LCIs) of fruit and vegetable (F&V) supply chains. As a set of case studies, it presents the LCI data of the processed vegetable products, (a) potato: chips, frozen-fries, and dehydrated flakes, and (b) tomato-pasta sauce. The data can support to undertake life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) of food commodities in a "cradle to grave" approach.

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Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO concentrations.

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Understanding sources of uncertainty in climate-crop modelling is critical for informing adaptation strategies for cropping systems. An understanding of the major sources of uncertainty in yield change is needed to develop strategies to reduce the total uncertainty. Here, we simulated rain-fed wheat cropping at four representative locations in China and Australia using eight crop models, 32 global climate models (GCMs) and two climate downscaling methods, to investigate sources of uncertainty in yield response to climate change.

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Grain yield of wheat and its components are very sensitive to heat stress at the critical growth stages of anthesis and grain filling. We observed negative impacts of heat stress on biomass partitioning and grain growth in environment-controlled phytotron experiments over 4 years, and we quantified relationships between the stress and grain number and potential grain weight at anthesis and during grain filling using process-based heat stress routines. These relationships included reduced grain set under stress at anthesis and decreased potential grain weight under stress during early grain filling.

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Temperature response curves under diurnal oscillating temperatures differ from those under constant conditions for all stages of the infection cycle on potatoes. We developed a mechanistic model (BLIGHTSIM) with an hourly time step to simulate late blight under fluctuating environmental conditions and predict late blight epidemics in potato fields. BLIGHTSIM is a modified susceptible (S), latent (L), infectious (I) and removed (R) compartmental model with hourly temperature and relative humidity as driving variables.

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