Publications by authors named "Mogesh Naidoo"

Characterizing black carbon (BC) on a fine scale globally is essential for understanding its climate and health impacts. However, sparse BC mass measurements in different parts of the world and coarse model resolution have inhibited evaluation of global BC emission inventories. Here, we apply globally distributed BC mass measurements from the Surface Particulate Matter Network (SPARTAN) and complementary measurement networks to evaluate contemporary BC emission inventories.

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Global ground-level measurements of elements in ambient particulate matter (PM) can provide valuable information to understand the distribution of dust and trace elements, assess health impacts, and investigate emission sources. We use X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy to characterize the elemental composition of PM samples collected from 27 globally distributed sites in the Surface PARTiculate mAtter Network (SPARTAN) over 2019-2023. Consistent protocols are applied to collect all samples and analyze them at one central laboratory, which facilitates comparison across different sites.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study developed a random forest model to estimate daily fine particulate matter (PM) concentrations at a high resolution of 1 km in Gauteng Province, South Africa, addressing the lack of exposure estimates.
  • The model achieved a cross-validation R of 0.80 and identified key predictors like satellite AOD, meteorology, and population density for PM levels, successfully capturing temporal patterns from ground data.
  • Following the implementation of new national air quality standards in 2016, PM concentrations decreased in most areas, though levels in Johannesburg remained stable, underscoring the model's potential for epidemiological research and policy evaluation.
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Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a "business as usual scenario", that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands.

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