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Article Abstract
Methane (CH) emissions from thawing permafrost could amplify climate warming. However, long-term trajectory of net CH balance in permafrost regions, particularly high-altitude permafrost regions, remains unknown. Based on literature synthesis and CLM5.0 model, we evaluate the contemporary and future CH fluxes across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region from 1989-2100. Here, we find that this permafrost region functions as a marginal CH sink during 1989-2018 (-0.01 ± 0.01 Tg CH yr⁻¹), and future trajectories diverge, with warming and wetting under low- and medium-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6/SSP2-4.5) driving persistent CH emissions (0.07 Tg CH yr⁻¹). By contrast, under higher emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0/SSP5-8.5), the region shifts to net emissions by mid-century but enhanced atmospheric CH concentrations strengthen sink, returning it to a net sink by century's end (-0.06 ~ -0.02 Tg CH yr⁻¹). These results demonstrate that climate change and atmospheric CH dynamics jointly mediate the trajectory of alpine permafrost CH balance.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12343840 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-62699-6 | DOI Listing |
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