Cancer mortality trends in China from 2013-2021 and projections to 2030.

Objective: This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in cancer mortality in China from 2013-2021 and project the future trends through 2030.

Methods: This study was based on the China Causes of Death Surveillance Dataset, which covers 2.37 billion person-years. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated using Segi's world standard population and the trends were evaluated Joinpoint regression. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used for mortality projections. Contributions of demographic changes (population size and age structure) and risk factors to the mortality burden were quantified using the decomposition analysis.

Results: The combined ASMRs for all cancers decreased annually by 2.3%, driven by significant declines in esophageal (4.8%), stomach (4.5%), and liver cancers (2.7%). In contrast, the pancreatic and prostate cancer ASMRs increased by 2.0% and 3.4% annually, respectively. Urban areas demonstrated a more rapid decline in the combined ASMRs for all cancers [average annual percent change (AAPC) = -3.0% in urban areas . -2.0% in rural areas], highlighting persistent disparities. Population aging contributed 20%-50% to death increases between 2013 and 2021. The combined ASMRs for all cancers, like the findings of temporal trend analyses, will continue to decrease and the regional (urban and rural) difference is projected to simulate that of the temporal trend through 2030. In fact, cancer deaths are projected to reach 2.4 million by 2030.

Conclusions: The cancer burden in China is facing the dual challenges of population aging and urban-rural disparities. It is necessary to prioritize rural screening, control risk factors, such as smoking and diet, and integrate more efficacious cancer prevention and control programmes into the policy to reduce mortality in the future.